(Circulation. 1999;100:1035-1042.)
© 1999 American Heart Association, Inc.
Clinical Investigation and Reports |
Incremental Prognostic Value of Post-Stress Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction and Volume by Gated Myocardial Perfusion Single Photon Emission Computed Tomography
From the Division of Nuclear Medicine (S.L., I.C., H.C.L., J.D.F., D.S.B.), Department of Imaging, and the Division of Cardiology (T.S., H.C.L., J.D.F., M.J.Z., D.S.B.), Department of Medicine, and AIM Program (G.G., P.B.K.), Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, the CSMC Burns and Allen Research Institute, and the Departments of Medicine (D.S.B.) and Radiological Sciences (G.G.), University of California at Los Angeles School of Medicine, Los Angeles. Dr Sharir is a research fellow funded by the Save a Heart Foundation, Los Angeles, Calif.
Correspondence to Daniel S. Berman, MD, Department of Imaging, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, 8700 Beverly Boulevard, Room A042, Los Angeles, CA 90048. E-mail bermand{at}cshs.org
Background—The incremental prognostic value of post-stress left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) and volume over perfusion has not been investigated.
Methods and Results—We identified 1680 consecutive patients who
underwent rest Tl-201/stress Tc-99m sestamibi gated single photon
emission computed tomography (SPECT) and who were followed-up for
569±106 days. Receiver-operator characteristics analysis
defined an EF<45%, an end-systolic volume (ESV) >70 mL, and
an end-diastolic volume >120 mL as optimal thresholds,
yielding moderate sensitivity and high specificity in the prediction of
cardiac death. Patients with an EF
45% had mortality rates
<1%/year, despite severe perfusion abnormalities, whereas patients
with an EF<45% had high mortality rates, even with only mild/moderate
perfusion abnormalities (9.2%/year; P<0.00001).
Similarly, an ESV
70 mL was related to a low cardiac death rate
(<1.2%/year), even for patients with severe perfusion abnormalities,
whereas patients with an ESV>70 mL and only mild/moderate perfusion
abnormalities had high death rates (8.2%/year;
P<0.00001). Patients with an EF<45% and an ESV70 mL
had low cardiac death rates (1.7%/year); those with an EF<45% but an
ESV>70 mL had high death rates (7.9%/year; P<0.02).
Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression showed
that perfusion variables and ESV were independent predictors of
overall coronary events, whereas EF and ESV demonstrated
incremental prognostic values over prescan and perfusion information in
predicting cardiac death and cardiac death or myocardial
infarction.
Conclusions—Post-stress EF and ESV by gated-SPECT have incremental prognostic values over prescan and perfusion information in predicting cardiac death, and they provide clinically useful risk stratification.
Key Words: myocardial perfusion • imaging • cardiac volume • prognosis
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