This Article Free upon publication Full Text Full Text (PDF) Data Supplement Correction Correction (v114,pe498) All Versions of this Article: 114/2/119    most recent CIRCULATIONAHA.105.595140v1 Alert me when this article is cited Alert me if a correction is posted Citation Map Services Email this article to a friend Similar articles in this journal Similar articles in PubMed Alert me to new issues of the journal Download to citation manager Request Permissions Citing Articles Citing Articles via HighWire Citing Articles via Google Scholar Google Scholar Articles by Miyasaka, Y. Articles by Tsang, T. S.M. Search for Related Content PubMed PubMed Citation Articles by Miyasaka, Y. Articles by Tsang, T. S.M. Related Collections Arrhythmias, clinical electrophysiology, drugs Epidemiology Related Article

(Circulation. 2006;114:119-125.)
© 2006 American Heart Association, Inc.

Epidemiology

Secular Trends in Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation in Olmsted County, Minnesota, 1980 to 2000, and Implications on the Projections for Future Prevalence

Yoko Miyasaka, MD, PhD; Marion E. Barnes, MSc; Bernard J. Gersh, MB, ChB, DPhil; Stephen S. Cha, MS; Kent R. Bailey, PhD; Walter P. Abhayaratna, MBBS; James B. Seward, MD; Teresa S.M. Tsang, MD

From the Division of Cardiovascular Disease and Internal Medicine (Y.M., M.E.B., B.J.G., W.P.A., J.B.S., T.S.M.T.) and Section of Biostatistics (S.S.C, K.R.B.), Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minn.

Correspondence to Dr Teresa S.M. Tsang, 200 First St SW, Rochester, MN 55905. E-mail tsang.teresa{at}mayo.edu

Received October 13, 2005; revision received May 7, 2006; accepted May 12, 2006.

Background— Limited data exist on trends in incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF). We assessed the community-based trends in AF incidence for 1980 to 2000 and provided prevalence projections to 2050.

Methods and Results— The adult residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, who had ECG-confirmed first AF in the period 1980 to 2000 (n=4618) were identified. Trends in age-adjusted incidence were determined and used to construct model-based prevalence estimates. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of AF per 1000 person-years was 3.04 (95% CI, 2.78 to 3.31) in 1980 and 3.68 (95% CI, 3.42 to 3.95) in 2000. According to Poisson regression with adjustment for age and sex, incidence of AF increased significantly (P=0.014), with a relative increase of 12.6% (95% CI, 2.1 to 23.1) over 21 years. The increase in age-adjusted AF incidence did not differ between men and women (P=0.84). According to the US population projections by the US Census Bureau, the number of persons with AF is projected to be 12.1 million by 2050, assuming no further increase in age-adjusted incidence of AF, but 15.9 million if the increase in incidence continues.

Conclusions— The age-adjusted incidence of AF increased significantly in Olmsted County during 1980 to 2000. Whether or not this rate of increase continues, the projected number of persons with AF for the United States will exceed 10 million by 2050, underscoring the urgent need for primary prevention strategies against AF development.

---

 

CLINICAL PERSPECTIVE

Related Article:

Issue Highlights
Circulation 2006 114: 97. [Full Text]

This article has been cited by other articles:

				D. E. Singer, G. W. Albers, J. E. Dalen, M. C. Fang, A. S. Go, J. L. Halperin, G. Y. H. Lip, and W. J. Manning Antithrombotic Therapy in Atrial Fibrillation: American College of Chest Physicians Evidence-Based Clinical Practice Guidelines (8th Edition) Chest, June 1, 2008; 133(6_suppl): 546S - 592S. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				G. Y H Lip Don't add aspirin for associated stable vascular disease in a patient with atrial fibrillation receiving anticoagulation BMJ, March 15, 2008; 336(7644): 614 - 615. [Full Text] [PDF]

				H. Watanabe, N. Tanabe, T. Watanabe, D. Darbar, D. M. Roden, S. Sasaki, and Y. Aizawa Metabolic Syndrome and Risk of Development of Atrial Fibrillation: The Niigata Preventive Medicine Study Circulation, March 11, 2008; 117(10): 1255 - 1260. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				N.A. M. Estes III, J. L. Halperin, H. Calkins, M. D. Ezekowitz, P. Gitman, A. S. Go, R. L. McNamara, J. V. Messer, J. L. Ritchie, S. J.W. Romeo, et al. ACC/AHA/Physician Consortium 2008 Clinical Performance Measures for Adults With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation or Atrial Flutter: A Report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force on Performance Measures and the Physician Consortium for Performance Improvement (Writing Committee to Develop Clinical Performance Measures for Atrial Fibrillation) Developed in Collaboration With the Heart Rhythm Society J. Am. Coll. Cardiol., February 26, 2008; 51(8): 865 - 884. [Full Text] [PDF]

				N. A. M. Estes III, J. L. Halperin, H. Calkins, M. D. Ezekowitz, P. Gitman, A. S. Go, R. L. McNamara, J. V. Messer, J. L. Ritchie, S. J.W. Romeo, et al. ACC/AHA/Physician Consortium 2008 Clinical Performance Measures for Adults With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation or Atrial Flutter: A Report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force on Performance Measures and the Physician Consortium for Performance Improvement (Writing Committee to Develop Clinical Performance Measures for Atrial Fibrillation) Circulation, February 26, 2008; 117(8): 1101 - 1120. [Full Text] [PDF]

				E. M. Hylek and D. E. Solarz Dual Antiplatelet and Oral Anticoagulant Therapy: Increasing Use and Precautions for a Hazardous Combination J. Am. Coll. Cardiol. Intv., February 1, 2008; 1(1): 62 - 64. [Full Text] [PDF]

				W. Rosamond, K. Flegal, K. Furie, A. Go, K. Greenlund, N. Haase, S. M. Hailpern, M. Ho, V. Howard, B. Kissela, et al. Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics--2008 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association Statistics Committee and Stroke Statistics Subcommittee Circulation, January 29, 2008; 117(4): e25 - e146. [Full Text] [PDF]

				L. Mont, D. Tamborero, R. Elosua, I. Molina, B. Coll-Vinent, M. Sitges, B. Vidal, A. Scalise, A. Tejeira, A. Berruezo, et al. Physical activity, height, and left atrial size are independent risk factors for lone atrial fibrillation in middle-aged healthy individuals Europace, January 4, 2008; (2008) eum263v1. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				A. G.G. Turpie New oral anticoagulants in atrial fibrillation Eur. Heart J., January 2, 2008; 29(2): 155 - 165. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				F. G. Cosio, E. Aliot, G. L. Botto, H. Heidbuchel, C. J. Geller, P. Kirchhof, J.-C. De Haro, R. Frank, J. P. Villacastin, J. Vijgen, et al. Delayed rhythm control of atrial fibrillation may be a cause of failure to prevent recurrences: reasons for change to active antiarrhythmic treatment at the time of the first detected episode Europace, January 1, 2008; 10(1): 21 - 27. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				J. E. Marine Catheter Ablation Therapy for Supraventricular Arrhythmias JAMA, December 19, 2007; 298(23): 2768 - 2778. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				H. M. Krumholz and F. A. Masoudi The Year in Epidemiology, Health Services Research, and Outcomes Research J. Am. Coll. Cardiol., December 4, 2007; 50(23): 2254 - 2262. [Full Text] [PDF]

				D. G. Katritsis and A. J. Camm Catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation: do we know what we are doing? Europace, November 1, 2007; 9(11): 1002 - 1005. [Full Text] [PDF]

				M. D. Ezekowitz Maintaining Sinus Rhythm -- Making Treatment Better Than the Disease N. Engl. J. Med., September 6, 2007; 357(10): 1039 - 1041. [Full Text] [PDF]

				E. M. Hylek, C. Evans-Molina, C. Shea, L. E. Henault, and S. Regan Major Hemorrhage and Tolerability of Warfarin in the First Year of Therapy Among Elderly Patients With Atrial Fibrillation Circulation, May 29, 2007; 115(21): 2689 - 2696. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				G. Y H Lip, P. Kakar, and T. Watson Atrial fibrillation--the growing epidemic Heart, May 1, 2007; 93(5): 542 - 543. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				N. F Murphy, C. R Simpson, P. S Jhund, S. Stewart, M. Kirkpatrick, J. Chalmers, K. MacIntyre, and J. J V McMurray A national survey of the prevalence, incidence, primary care burden and treatment of atrial fibrillation in Scotland Heart, May 1, 2007; 93(5): 606 - 612. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				P. Zimetbaum Amiodarone for Atrial Fibrillation N. Engl. J. Med., March 1, 2007; 356(9): 935 - 941. [Full Text] [PDF]

				G. F. Mitchell, R. S. Vasan, M. J. Keyes, H. Parise, T. J. Wang, M. G. Larson, R. B. D'Agostino Sr, W. B. Kannel, D. Levy, and E. J. Benjamin Pulse Pressure and Risk of New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation JAMA, February 21, 2007; 297(7): 709 - 715. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				W. Rosamond, K. Flegal, G. Friday, K. Furie, A. Go, K. Greenlund, N. Haase, M. Ho, V. Howard, B. Kissela, et al. Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics--2007 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association Statistics Committee and Stroke Statistics Subcommittee Circulation, February 6, 2007; 115(5): e69 - e171. [Full Text] [PDF]

				M. L. Weisfeldt and S. J. Zieman Advances In The Prevention And Treatment Of Cardiovascular Disease Health Aff., January 1, 2007; 26(1): 25 - 37. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				D. G. Wyse Transvenous Radiofrequency Catheter Ablation for Atrial Flutter and Atrial Fibrillation: The End of the Beginning? Circulation, October 17, 2006; 114(16): 1670 - 1672. [Full Text] [PDF]

				AFib Incidence: How Fast Is It Increasing? Journal Watch Cardiology, September 13, 2006; 2006(913): 3 - 3. [Full Text]