1 From the Section of Preventive Cardiology, Medical Department I, Sahlgren's Hospital, University of Göteborg, Göteborg, Sweden.
For a prospective study of risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD), defined as acute nonfatal myocardial infarction and acute fatal CHD, 973 men, all aged 50 years, were recruited from a general Swedish urban population. Of the 855 who agreed to participate, 834 who showed no signs of CHD were selected and observed for nine years and four months. Autopsies were performed on all except two of the 55 patients who died during the study. Forty-four men developed clinical manifestations of CHD during this time; 19 of them died. Using a multiple logistic model, we analyzed nine probable risk factors. The presence of high serum cholesterol, smoking, high systolic blood pressure, dyspnea, and registration by the Temperance Board increased the risk of events related to CHD significantly. The presence of high serum triglycerides, high hematocrit readings, and increased geographic mobility did not cause a significant increase in events related to CHD. Those with sedentary jobs showed a slightly increased tendency to develop manifestations of the disease. The predictive power of the logistic function (with cholesterol, smoking, and systolic blood pressure) was tested in another randomly selected population sample of 5,146 men aged 51-55 years and found to be very accurate. The 10% (decile) of the population that had the highest risk of clinical manifestations of coronary disease and the 10% who had the lowest risk were defined. Manifestations of coronary disease occurred 29 times more frequently in the highest decile than in the lowest decile.
Submitted on August 14, 1972
© 1973 American Heart Association, Inc.
Multivariate Analysis of Risk Factors for Coronary Heart Disease
Key Words: Cholesterol • Triglycerides • Systolic blood pressure • Smoking • Dyspnea • Record of intemperance • Physical activity • Geographic mobility • Hematocrit
Accepted on April 30, 1973
This article has been cited by other articles:
 |
|
 |
|
  N. Sarwar, J. Danesh, G. Eiriksdottir, G. Sigurdsson, N. Wareham, S. Bingham, S. M. Boekholdt, K.-T. Khaw, and V. Gudnason Triglycerides and the Risk of Coronary Heart Disease: 10 158 Incident Cases Among 262 525 Participants in 29 Western Prospective Studies Circulation, January 30, 2007; 115(4): 450 - 458. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 A. Abidov, A. Rozanski, R. Hachamovitch, S. W. Hayes, F. Aboul-Enein, I. Cohen, J. D. Friedman, G. Germano, and D. S. Berman Prognostic significance of dyspnea in patients referred for cardiac stress testing. N. Engl. J. Med., November 3, 2005; 353(18): 1889 - 1898. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 I. Goldenberg, M. Jonas, A. Tenenbaum, V. Boyko, S. Matetzky, A. Shotan, S. Behar, and H. Reicher-Reiss Current Smoking, Smoking Cessation, and the Risk of Sudden Cardiac Death in Patients With Coronary Artery Disease Arch Intern Med, October 27, 2003; 163(19): 2301 - 2305. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 C Turesson, W M O'Fallon, C S Crowson, S E Gabriel, and E L Matteson Extra-articular disease manifestations in rheumatoid arthritis: incidence trends and risk factors over 46 years Ann Rheum Dis, August 1, 2003; 62(8): 722 - 727. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 H. Iso, Y. Naito, S. Sato, A. Kitamura, T. Okamura, T. Sankai, T. Shimamoto, M. Iida, and Y. Komachi Serum Triglycerides and Risk of Coronary Heart Disease among Japanese Men and Women Am. J. Epidemiol., March 1, 2001; 153(5): 490 - 499. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
R. J. Glynn, C. U. Chae, J. M. Guralnik, J. O. Taylor, and C. H. Hennekens Pulse Pressure and Mortality in Older People Arch Intern Med, October 9, 2000; 160(18): 2765 - 2772. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 D. Prisco, S. Caciolli, S. Del Pace, and G. F. Gensini State-of-the-Art Review : Sex and Cardiovascular Risk Factors Clinical and Applied Thrombosis/Hemostasis, April 1, 1996; 2(2): 94 - 102. [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 J. Qvist, S.-E. Johansson, and L. M. Johansson Multivariate analyses of mortality from coronary heart disease due to biological and behavioural factors Scand J Public Health, March 1, 1996; 24(1): 67 - 76. [Abstract] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 I. Bolibar, S. G. Thompson, A. von Eckardstein, M. Sandkamp, and G. Assmann Dose-Response Relationships of Serum Lipid Measurements With the Extent of Coronary Stenosis : Strong, Independent, and Comprehensive Arterioscler Thromb Vasc Biol, August 1, 1995; 15(8): 1035 - 1042. [Abstract] [Full Text]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 F. Kasagi, M. Akahoshi, and K. Shimaoka Relation Between Cold Pressor Test and Development of Hypertension Based on 28-Year Follow-up Hypertension, January 1, 1995; 25(1): 71 - 76. [Abstract] [Full Text]
|
|
|
|
|
|
L. Tenkanen, K. Pietila, V. Manninen, and M. Manttari The Triglyceride Issue Revisited: Findings From the Helsinki Heart Study Arch Intern Med, December 12, 1994; 154(23): 2714 - 2720. [Abstract] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
C. T. Sempos, A. C. Looker, R. F. Gillum, and D. M. Makuc Body Iron Stores and the Risk of Coronary Heart Disease N. Engl. J. Med., April 21, 1994; 330(16): 1119 - 1124. [Abstract] [Full Text]
|
|
|
|
|
|
M. H. Criqui, G. Heiss, R. Cohn, L. D. Cowan, C. M. Suchindran, S. Bangdiwala, S. Kritchevsky, D. R. Jacobs, H. K. O'Grady, and C.E. Davis Plasma Triglyceride Level and Mortality from Coronary Heart Disease N. Engl. J. Med., April 29, 1993; 328(17): 1220 - 1225. [Abstract] [Full Text]
|
|
|
|
|
|
B. Moushmoush and P. Abi-Mansour Alcohol and the Heart: The Long-term Effects of Alcohol on the Cardiovascular System Arch Intern Med, January 1, 1991; 151(1): 36 - 42. [Abstract] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 T. J. Regan Alcohol and the Cardiovascular System JAMA, July 18, 1990; 264(3): 377 - 381. [Abstract] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
O. Samuelsson, L. Wilhelmsen, O. K. Andersson, K. Pennert, and G. Berglund Cardiovascular Morbidity in Relation to Change in Blood Pressure and Serum Cholesterol Levels in Treated Hypertension: Results From the Primary Prevention Trial in Goteborg, Sweden JAMA, October 2, 1987; 258(13): 1768 - 1776. [Abstract] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 A. L. KLATSKY, G. D. FRIEDMAN, and A. B. SIEGELAUB Alcohol and Mortality: A Ten-Year Kaiser-Permanente Experience Ann Intern Med, August 1, 1981; 95(2): 139 - 145. [Abstract] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
T. Gordon, W. B. Kannel, W. P. Castelli, and T. R. Dawber Lipoproteins, Cardiovascular Disease, and Death: The Framingham Study Arch Intern Med, August 1, 1981; 141(9): 1128 - 1131. [Abstract] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
C. H. Hennekens, W. Willett, B. Rosner, D. S. Cole, and S. L. Mayrent Effects of Beer, Wine, and Liquor in Coronary Deaths JAMA, November 2, 1979; 242(18): 1973 - 1974. [Abstract] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
O. Lannerstad, S.-O. Isacsson, and S.-E. Lindell Risk Factors for Premature Death in Men 56-60 Years Old: A Prospective Study of Men Born 1914, Living in Malmo, Sweden Scand J Public Health, January 1, 1979; 7(1): 41 - 47. [Abstract] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
W. B. KANNEL, W. P. CASTELLI, and T. GORDON Cholesterol in the Prediction of Atherosclerotic Disease: New Perspectives Based on the Framingham Study Ann Intern Med, January 1, 1979; 90(1): 85 - 91. [Abstract] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
S. Heyden, H. A. Tyroler, G. Heiss, C. G. Hames, and A. Bartel Coffee Consumption and Mortality: Total Mortality, Stroke Mortality, and Coronary Heart Disease Mortality Arch Intern Med, October 1, 1978; 138(10): 1472 - 1475. [Abstract] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
J. H. MEDALIE and U. GOLDBOURT Unrecognized Myocardial Infarction: Five-Year Incidence, Mortality, and Risk Factors Ann Intern Med, May 1, 1976; 84(5): 526 - 531. [Abstract] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
T. Theorell, A. Askergren, A. Olsson, and T. Akerstedt On Risk Factors for Premature Myocardial Infarction in Middle-aged Building Construction Workers: A Comparison with other Selected Illnesses Scand J Public Health, January 1, 1976; 4(1-3): 61 - 66. [Abstract] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
A. K. Rider Should Hyperlipoproteinemia Be Treated In Patients With Coronary Artery Disease? JAMA, July 21, 1975; 233(3): 275 - 277. [Abstract] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
D. H. BLANKENHORN, C. D. JENKINS, W. INSULL JR., and L. WEISS Type A Physicians and Coronary Risk Education Ann Intern Med, November 1, 1974; 81(5): 700 - 701. [Abstract] [PDF]
|
|