Circulation, Vol 53, 348-355, Copyright © 1976 by American Heart Association
RJ Brand, RH Rosenman, RI Sholtz and M Friedman
The Western Collaborative Group Study (WCGS) is a prospective
epidemiological study of 3,154 initially well men, aged 39059 years at
intake in 1960-61, who were employed in ten participating companies in
California. Clinical coronary heart disease (CHD) occurred in 257 men
during a follow-up period of eight and one-half years. Coronary heart
disease risk is predicted using the additive multiple logistic model with
the risk factors: age, cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, hematocrit,
ECG status, smoking at intake, and relative body weight. The predicted
individual CHS risk levels, using the logistic results derived from the
WCGS data, are highly correlated with predicted risk levels using a
Framington study (FS) equation for these same risk factors with 12-year
follow-up. The observed number of CHS events in the WCGS is not
significantly different from the expected number of events derived from the
FS logistic equation, after correction of length of follow-up. Multiple
logistic analysis of the direct association between CHD incidence and
behavior pattern gives an approximate relative risk of 1.9 (P = 0.0006) and
2.1 (P = 0.0015) for Type A compared to Type B men aged 39-49 and 50-59
years, respectively. It is estimated that removal of the excess risk
associated with Type A behavior would correspond to a 31% (standard error =
6.6%) reduction of coronary heart disease incidence in the Western
Collaborative Group Study population.
ARTICLES
Multivariate prediction of coronary heart disease in the Western Collaborative Group Study compared to the findings of the Framingham study
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