Circulation, Vol 78, 10-14, Copyright © 1988 by American Heart Association
DE Wilcken and AJ Hickey
Severe mitral regurgitation requiring surgery is the most common life-
threatening complication of mitral valve prolapse (MVP) and is due to
progressive myxomatous change in the valve. We identified all residents of
New South Wales, Australia, who had mitral valve surgery for myxomatous
valve disease during 1982 and, using these data and the adult population
statistics from 1982, estimated the cumulative risk of valve surgery in
patients with MVP. In 1982, 50 of the 5.36 million New South Wales
residents required surgery for this complication of MVP. Of the 50, 36 were
men and 14 were women, which was significantly different from the
population sex distribution (p less than 0.02) for mean age +/- SD of 60
+/- 11 years (range, 26-78 years). Using our previously determined 4%
prevalence of adult MVP in New South Wales, we estimated the number of male
and female patients with MVP at risk for each 5-year age interval and
calculated age-specific event rates. The results show that the cumulative
risk is minimal below the age of 50 years but then rises steeply,
particularly in men. The risks in men aged 50, 60, and 70 years (with 95%
confidence intervals) were 1:202 (130-448), 1:53 (37-82), and 1:28 (22-41),
respectively. In women, the risk was less than half that in men (p less
than 0.001).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
ARTICLES
Lifetime risk for patients with mitral valve prolapse of developing severe valve regurgitation requiring surgery
Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, University of New South Wales, Prince Henry Hospital, Sydney, Australia.
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