Circulation, Vol 85, 2110-2118, Copyright © 1992 by American Heart Association
GT O'Connor, SK Plume, EM Olmstead, LH Coffin, JR Morton, CT Maloney, ER Nowicki, DG Levy, JF Tryzelaar and F Hernandez
BACKGROUND. A prospective regional study was conducted to identify factors
associated with in-hospital mortality among patients undergoing isolated
coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG). A prediction rule was
developed and validated based on the data collected. METHODS AND RESULTS.
Data from 3,055 patients were collected from five clinical centers between
July 1, 1987, and April 15, 1989. Logistic regression analysis was used to
predict the risk of in-hospital mortality. A prediction rule was developed
on a training set of data and validated on an independent test set. The
metric used to assess the performance of the prediction rule was the area
under the relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Variables used to
construct the regression model of in-hospital mortality included age, sex,
body surface area, presence of comorbid disease, history of CABG, left
ventricular end- diastolic pressure, ejection fraction score, and priority
of surgery. The model significantly predicted the occurrence of in-hospital
mortality. The area under the ROC curve obtained from the training set of
data was 0.74 (perfect, 1.0). The prediction rule performed well when used
on a test set of data (area, 0.76). The correlation between observed and
expected numbers of deaths was 0.99. CONCLUSIONS. The prediction rule
described in this report was developed using regional data, uses only eight
variables, has good performance characteristics, and is easily available to
clinicians with access to a microcomputer or programmable calculator. This
validated multivariate prediction rule would be useful both to calculate
the risk of mortality for an individual patient and to contrast observed
and expected mortality rates for an institution or a particular clinician.
ARTICLES
Multivariate prediction of in-hospital mortality associated with coronary artery bypass graft surgery. Northern New England Cardiovascular Disease Study Group
Department of Medicine, Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center, Lebanon, NH 03756.
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F. Hernandez, R. A. Clough, J. D. Klemperer, and J. M. Blum Off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting: Initial experience at one community hospital Ann. Thorac. Surg., September 1, 2000; 70(3): 1070 - 1072. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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K Wynne-Jones, M Jackson, G Grotte, B Bridgewater, and North West Regional Cardiac Surgery Audit Steering Limitations of the Parsonnet score for measuring risk stratified mortality in the north west of England Heart, July 1, 2000; 84(1): 71 - 78. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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C Sherlaw-Johnson, J Lovegrove, T Treasure, and S Gallivan Likely variations in perioperative mortality associated with cardiac surgery: when does high mortality reflect bad practice? Heart, July 1, 2000; 84(1): 79 - 82. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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T. B. Ferguson Jr, S. W. Dziuban Jr, F. H. Edwards, M. C. Eiken, A. L. W. Shroyer, P. C. Pairolero, R. P. Anderson, and F. L. Grover The STS National Database: current changes and challenges for the new millennium Ann. Thorac. Surg., March 1, 2000; 69(3): 680 - 691. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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X. L. Rudner, D. E. Berkowitz, J. V. Booth, B. L. Funk, K. L. Cozart, E. B. D’Amico, H. El-Moalem, S. O. Page, C. D. Richardson, B. Winters, et al. Subtype Specific Regulation of Human Vascular {alpha}1-Adrenergic Receptors by Vessel Bed and Age Circulation, December 7, 1999; 100(23): 2336 - 2343. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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Y. Maor, Y. Cohen, L. Olmer, and B. Mozes Factors Associated With Health Indicators in Patients Undergoing Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery* Chest, December 1, 1999; 116(6): 1570 - 1574. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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H. Corbineau, H. Lebreton, T. Langanay, Y. Logeais, and A. Leguerrier Prospective evaluation of coronary arteries: influence on operative risk in coronary artery surgery Eur. J. Cardiothorac. Surg., October 1, 1999; 16(4): 429 - 434. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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K. A. Eagle, R. A. Guyton, R. Davidoff, G. A. Ewy, J. Fonger, T. J. Gardner, J. P. Gott, H. C. Herrmann, R. A. Marlow, W. C. Nugent, et al. ACC/AHA guidelines for coronary artery bypass graft surgery: A report of the American College of Cardiology/ American Heart Association task force on Practice Guidelines (Committee to revise the 1991 Guidelines for Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery) J. Am. Coll. Cardiol., October 1, 1999; 34(4): 1262 - 1347. [Full Text] [PDF]
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J. J. Munoz, N. J.O. Birkmeyer, L. J. Dacey, J. D. Birkmeyer, D. C. Charlesworth, E. R. Johnson, S. J. Lahey, M. Norotsky, R. D. Quinn, B. M. Westbrook, et al. Trends in rates of reexploration for hemorrhage after coronary artery bypass surgery Ann. Thorac. Surg., October 1, 1999; 68(4): 1321 - 1325. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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C. S. Rihal, K. Sutton-Tyrrell, P. Guo, N. M. Keller, R. Jandova, M. A. Sellers, H. V. Schaff, and D. R. Holmes Jr Increased Incidence of Periprocedural Complications Among Patients With Peripheral Vascular Disease Undergoing Myocardial Revascularization in the Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation Circulation, July 13, 1999; 100(2): 171 - 177. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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J. Martinez-Alario, I. D. Tuesta, E. Plasencia, M. Santana, and M. L. Mora Mortality Prediction in Cardiac Surgery Patients : Comparative Performance of Parsonnet and General Severity Systems Circulation, May 11, 1999; 99(18): 2378 - 2382. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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J. Ivanov, J. V. Tu, and C. D. Naylor Ready-Made, Recalibrated, or Remodeled? : Issues in the Use of Risk Indexes for Assessing Mortality After Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery Circulation, April 27, 1999; 99(16): 2098 - 2104. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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E. D. Peterson, E. R. DeLong, J. G. Jollis, L. H. Muhlbaier, and D. B. Mark The effects of New York's bypass surgery provider profiling on access to care and patient outcomes in the elderly J. Am. Coll. Cardiol., October 1, 1998; 32(4): 993 - 999. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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B. Mozes, L. Olmer, N. Galai, and E. Simchen A national study of postoperative mortality associated with coronary artery bypass grafting in Israel Ann. Thorac. Surg., October 1, 1998; 66(4): 1254 - 1262. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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W. C. Nugent Invited commentary Ann. Thorac. Surg., October 1, 1998; 66(4): 1263 - 1263. [Full Text] [PDF]
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G. T. O'Connor, J. D. Birkmeyer, L. J. Dacey, H. B. Quinton, C. A.S. Marrin, N. J.O. Birkmeyer, J. R. Morton, B. J. Leavitt, C. T. Maloney, F. Hernandez, et al. Results of a regional study of modes of death associated with coronary artery bypass grafting Ann. Thorac. Surg., October 1, 1998; 66(4): 1323 - 1328. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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B. D. Spiess, C. Ley, S. C. Body, L. C. Siegel, E. P. Stover, R. Maddi, M. D'Ambra, U. Jain, F. Liu, A. Herskowitz, et al. Hematocrit value on intensive care unit entry influences thefrequency of q-wave myocardial infarction after coronary artery bypass grafting J. Thorac. Cardiovasc. Surg., September 1, 1998; 116(3): 460 - 464. [Abstract] [Full Text]
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R. Sadanandam, N. Al Khaja, M. A Aziz, and M. A Turner Profile of Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery in United Arab Emirates: Dubai Hospital Experience Asian Cardiovasc Thorac Ann, June 1, 1998; 6(2): 118 - 124. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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N. J. O. Birkmeyer, D. C. Charlesworth, F. Hernandez, B. J. Leavitt, C. A. S. Marrin, J. R. Morton, E. M. Olmstead, and G. T. O'Connor Obesity and Risk of Adverse Outcomes Associated With Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery Circulation, May 5, 1998; 97(17): 1689 - 1694. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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B Bridgewater, H Neve, N Moat, T Hooper, and M Jones Predicting operative risk for coronary artery surgery in the United Kingdom: a comparison of various risk prediction algorithms Heart, April 1, 1998; 79(4): 350 - 355. [Abstract] [Full Text]
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L. J. Dacey, J. J. Munoz, Y. R. Baribeau, E. R. Johnson, S. J. Lahey, B. J. Leavitt, R. D. Quinn, W. C. Nugent, J. D. Birkmeyer, G. T. O'Connor, et al. Reexploration for Hemorrhage Following Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: Incidence and Risk Factors Arch Surg, April 1, 1998; 133(4): 442 - 447. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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L. I. lezzoni The Risks of Risk Adjustment JAMA, November 19, 1997; 278(19): 1600 - 1607. [Abstract] [PDF]
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P. Pinna-Pintor, M. Bobbio, L. Sandrelli, M. Giammaria, F. Patane, S. Bartolozzi, G. Bergandi, and O. Alfieri Risk Stratification for Open Heart Operations: Comparison of Centers Regardless of the Influence of the Surgical Team Ann. Thorac. Surg., August 1, 1997; 64(2): 410 - 413. [Abstract] [Full Text]
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R. C Groom, J. R Morton, and E. A Lefrak Outcomes analysis in cardiac surgery Perfusion, July 1, 1997; 12(4): 257 - 261. [Abstract] [PDF]
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R. P. Lippmann and D. M. Shahian Coronary Artery Bypass Risk Prediction Using Neural Networks Ann. Thorac. Surg., June 1, 1997; 63(6): 1635 - 1643. [Abstract] [Full Text]
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R. K. Orr Use of a Probabilistic Neural Network to Estimate the Risk of Mortality after Cardiac Surgery Med Decis Making, April 1, 1997; 17(2): 178 - 185. [Abstract] [PDF]
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E. Bennett-Guerrero, L. Ayuso, C. Hamilton-Davies, W. D. White, G. R. Barclay, P. K. Smith, S. A. King, L. H. Muhlbaier, M. F. Newman, and M. G. Mythen Relationship of Preoperative Antiendotoxin Core Antibodies and Adverse Outcomes Following Cardiac Surgery JAMA, February 26, 1997; 277(8): 646 - 650. [Abstract] [PDF]
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W. A. Ghali, A. S. Ash, R. E. Hall, and M. A. Moskowitz Statewide Quality Improvement Initiatives and Mortality After Cardiac Surgery JAMA, February 5, 1997; 277(5): 379 - 382. [Abstract] [PDF]
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J.-L. Trouillet, A. Scheimberg, A. Vuagnat, J.-Y. Fagon, J. Chastre, and C. Gibert LONG-TERM OUTCOME AND QUALITY OF LIFE OF PATIENTS REQUIRING MULTIDISCIPLINARY INTENSIVE CARE UNIT ADMISSION AFTER CARDIAC OPERATIONS J. Thorac. Cardiovasc. Surg., October 1, 1996; 112(4): 926 - 934. [Abstract] [Full Text]
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A. P. Morise, G. A. Diamond, R. Detrano, M. Bobbio, and E. Gunel The Effect of Disease-prevalence Adjustments on the Accuracy of a Logistic Prediction Model Med Decis Making, June 1, 1996; 16(2): 133 - 142. [Abstract] [PDF]
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