(Circulation. 1997;95:2459.)
© 1997 American Heart Association, Inc.
Articles |
1996 Paul Dudley White International Lecture
Our Future Society: A Global Challenge
Key Words: coronary disease • mortality • aging
An extract of the first 250 words of the full text is provided, because this article has no abstract. |
What do we know about human lifespan with regard to the length or shortness of life? The information to be had is small, observation careless and tradition based on fables.
—Francis Bacon, Historia Vitae et Mortis, 1645
Longevity in the
future will alter both the practice of medicine generally and
cardiovascular disease in particular. Fig 1
, the curve of human survival by Gompertz, was first
described in 1825 in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal
Society of London. It illustrates ideal human survival unaltered by any
disease process. The inner curve at 1900 and the middle curve at 1990
show the change in mean survival in this century. Both infant mortality
and diseases of mid-life have drastically changed, resulting in a
longer lifespan and as a result many older people in our society.
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Life expectancy in the United States in 1900 was 47 years, with 4% of
the population older than 65. In 1996 life expectancy is 76 years, with
12.3% of the population over 65. By 2026 life expectancy will be a
mean of 82 years, with 20% of the population over 65. Aging is
therefore a social phenomenon of the 20th century with profound medical
and social implications. The rapid increase is more than either
predicted or expected and is still not generally appreciated. In the
United States, more than 30 million people are older than 65 years. The
aged now constitute 12% of
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