(Circulation. 2000;101:61.)
© 2000 American Heart Association, Inc.
Clinical Investigation and Reports |
From the Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Cornell Medical Center, New York, NY (P.M.O., R.B.D.); Medlantic Research Institute, Washington, DC (B.V.H.); National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Bethesda, Md (R.R.F.); School of Public Health, University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center, Oklahoma City, Okla (E.T.L.); and Aberdeen Area Tribal Chairmens Health Board, Rapid City, SD (T.K.W.).
Correspondence to Peter M. Okin, MD, Cornell Medical Center, 525 E 68th St, New York, NY 10021. E-mail pokin{at}mail.med.cornell.edu
| Abstract |
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Methods and ResultsThe predictive values of QT prolongation and
QTD were assessed in 1839 participants in the Strong Heart Study, a
prospective study of cardiovascular disease in American
Indians. ECGs were acquired at 250 Hz; QT intervals were measured by
computer in all 12 leads and corrected for heart rate (QTc) by use of
Bazetts formula. QTD was calculated as the difference between the
maximum and minimum QTc. After a mean follow-up of 3.7±0.9 years,
there were 188 deaths from all causes, including 55
cardiovascular deaths. In univariate Cox
analyses, prolonged QTc and increased QTD were significant
predictors of all-cause mortality (
2=53.0,
P<0.0001;
2=11.3,
P=0.0008) and cardiovascular mortality
(
2=14.7, P=0.0001;
2=26.5,
P<0.0001). In multivariate Cox
regression analyses controlling for risk factors, QTc remained
a strong predictor of all-cause mortality (
2=16.5,
P<0.0001) and a weaker predictor of
cardiovascular mortality (
2=5.8,
P=0.016); QTD remained a significant predictor of
cardiovascular mortality only (
2=12.5,
P=0.0004).
ConclusionsThese findings support the value of computerized measurements of QTc and QTD in noninvasive risk stratification and suggest that these surface ECG variables may reflect different underlying abnormalities of ventricular repolarization.
Key Words: electrocardiography risk factors QT interval QT dispersion
| Introduction |
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The variable and uncertain predictive value of QT interval prolongation and increased QTD may be due in part to difficulties in accurate and reproducible determination of T-wave offset with standard analog ECG recordings and measurement techniques.15 16 However, use of digitally acquired ECGs with computerized detection of T-wave offset significantly enhances the accuracy and reproducibility of QT interval measurements,17 18 holding promise for improving the clinical utility of QT interval and QTD. The present study was performed to examine the value of computerized QT interval and QTD measurements from digitally acquired ECGs for prediction of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in a prospective, population-based study.
| Methods |
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Electrocardiography
Standard 12-lead ECGs were performed with MAC-PC or MAC-12
digital ECG systems (GE-Marquette Medical Systems) as previously
described.20 For each ECG, 10 seconds of data was
digitally recorded at a 250-Hz sampling frequency to a resolution
of 5 µV and stored in a Marquette MUSE system for computer
measurements. Digital ECG records were available on 2140 of the
4544 eligible participants (47.1%) in whom ECGs were obtained during
phase 1; the remainder of digital ECGs had been lost in a catastrophic
disk crash at the Fitzsimons Army Medical Center, where the ECGs were
originally stored. Participants with digital ECGs were nearly identical
in age (56.1±8.2 versus 56.5±8.0 years) and were slightly more likely
to be male (42.1% versus 39.1%, P=0.04) than those without
digital ECGs. In addition, there were small but statistically
significant differences in tribal representation between those
with and without digital ECGs (Arizona, 33.2% versus 32.7%; Oklahoma,
30.6% versus 36.4%; and North and South Dakota, 36.2% versus 30.9%;
P<0.001).
QT Interval and QTD Measurement
QT interval and QTD measurements were performed from median
complexes on the digital ECGs by use of interactive software (QT-Guard,
GE-Marquette Medical Systems) that detects QRS onset and T-wave
offset17 18 and were validated by a single investigator
(Dr Okin) who was unaware of clinical outcome. This software used a
least-square fitting method to identify T-wave offset from the
intersection of the maximal slope of the terminal T-wave with a
threshold defined by the T-P segment.17 18 This approach
has superior reproducibility compared with other automated methods of
T-offset determination, with a mean difference of only 7.6 ms for QTD
measurements made serially at 30 minutes, 1 day, 1 week, and 1 month
after baseline study.17 18 Similarly, the mean absolute
differences between computer measurements and careful manual
measurement of QT interval by electronic calipers in our laboratory was
only 6 ms.4 Leads with high noise levels (standard
deviation of T-P segment signal divided by T-wave amplitude <0.7),
flat T waves (T-wave amplitude <60 µV), and T waves with
unidentifiable patterns were excluded from T-wave offset
determinations.21 Because the dispersion of QRS onset
across all 12 leads is much smaller than the dispersion of T
end,22 a global QRS onset of 12 leads was used for
measuring QT intervals. QT intervals were measured in all 12 leads and
corrected for heart rate (QTc) with Bazetts formula.23
QTD was calculated as the difference between maximal and minimal QTc
intervals. Only the 1839 participants with
6 total leads (mean,
9.7±0.6) and
3 precordial leads (mean, 4.9±0.2) with measurable
QT intervals were included in the study.
Clinical Evaluation
All participants underwent a personal interview, including the
Rose questionnaire,24 physical examination, and fasting
blood and urine sampling as previously reported.19
Participants were categorized as having definite or possible
coronary heart disease (CHD) on the basis of clinical and ECG
evidence of coronary disease or myocardial infarction and were
classified as diabetic as previously reported.25
Definition and Determination of Clinical End Points
For survival analyses, observation began on the date of
ECG recording. Deaths were identified in an ongoing manner from
sources in each community and through annual follow-up of each
participant and were verified through death certificates and medical
records. Deaths were classified as cardiovascular
if caused by myocardial infarction, stroke, sudden death resulting from
CHD, or congestive heart failure as previously
defined26 27 by an independent review panel of physicians
who were unaware of QT interval or QTD findings.
Data and Statistical Analyses
Data were stored and analyzed with SPSS, release 7.5
(SPSS Inc). Mean values were compared between groups by use of 2-way
ANOVA to adjust for possible differences between study centers
(Arizona, Oklahoma, and the Dakotas). Proportions were compared by use
of
2 tests. Mortality rates were calculated by
the product-limit method and were plotted according to the
Kaplan-Meier method,28 with comparisons of death rates
between groups performed with the log-rank test. Mortality
analyses were performed for both continuous and discrete
variables by fitting Cox proportional-hazards models to the data
after stratification by center.29 With the
proportional-hazards models, the estimated relative risk of the
incidence of death for positive compared with negative test outcomes
was computed as the antilog of the estimated coefficient corresponding
to the dichotomous variable.30 For continuous
variables, the comparison in relative risk was computed for a
1-SD-of-the-mean increase as the antilog of the estimated coefficients
times the SD. The 95% CI of each relative risk was calculated from
estimated coefficients and their standard errors31 and
Wald
2 statistics, and probability values were
calculated. To test the independence of QTc and QTD as predictors of
mortality, multivariate Cox models were used, including
age, sex, body mass index (BMI), diabetes, diastolic and
systolic blood pressures, HDL and LDL cholesterol,
albuminuria, alcohol use, history of smoking or prevalent
CHD, and tribal center. For all tests, a 2-tailed P<0.05
was required to reject the null hypotheses that there was no difference
in mortality according to QT interval or QTD findings.
| Results |
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The relation of QTc interval and QTD to clinical outcome is also shown
in Table 1
. Participants who died had significantly longer QTc
intervals and greater QTD than those who survived, with the greatest
increase in QTD in those who died of cardiovascular
causes.
QT Interval Prediction of Mortality
In Cox analyses adjusting for possible differences between
centers, QTc was a significant predictor of all-cause mortality
(
2=53.0, P<0.0001) and
cardiovascular mortality
(
2=14.7, P=0.0001). Assessment of
the Bazett-corrected QT interval as a continuous variable revealed
increases of 20% to 48% in all-cause and
cardiovascular mortality per 1-SD increase in QTc
across the entire range from low-normal to elevated QTc (Table 2
). When participants were divided into
groups on the basis of a QTc partition of 460 ms,13
the 189 participants (10.3%) with QTc >460 ms had a significantly
greater mortality from all causes by Kaplan-Meier analysis
(Figure 1
), with a 2.6-fold increased
risk of death (hazard ratio, 2.6; 95% CI, 1.8 to 3.7). The actuarial
5-year mortality was 37% among participants with prolonged QTc and
16% among those with QTc intervals
460 ms. In similar fashion, a QTc
>460 ms was associated with a significantly greater
cardiovascular mortality (Figure 1
), with a
2.3-fold increased risk of cardiovascular death (95%
CI, 1.2 to 4.6). The actuarial 5-year cardiovascular
mortality was 15% among participants with a QTc >460 ms and only 5%
among those with lower QTc intervals.
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After multivariate adjustment for age, sex, BMI,
diabetes, diastolic and systolic blood pressures,
HDL and LDL cholesterol, triglycerides,
albuminuria, alcohol use, history of smoking or prevalent
CHD, and study center, QTc considered as a continuous variable
remained a strong, significant predictor of all-cause mortality
(
2=16.5, P<0.0001) and a
significant but statistically weaker predictor of
cardiovascular mortality
(
2=5.8, P=0.016). After these
potential predictors of mortality were controlled for, the risk of
cardiac and all-cause mortality increased 35% per SD of QTc across the
range from low to elevated QTc (Table 3
).
After risk factors were controlled for, a QTc >460 ms was associated
with a 2-fold (95% CI, 1.4 to 3.0) increased risk of death and a
2.1-fold (95% CI, 1.0 to 4.4) higher risk of
cardiovascular death.
|
QTD and Mortality
In Cox analyses that adjusted for center, QTD was a
significant predictor of all-cause mortality
(
2=11.3, P=0.0008) and
cardiovascular mortality
(
2=26.5, P<0.0001). QTD as a
continuous variable was associated with 20% and 45% higher
all-cause and cardiovascular mortality per SD of QTD
(Table 2
). When participants were divided into groups by use
of a QTD partition of 58 ms (the upper 98th percentile in a separate
group of normal subjects32 with 97% specificity
in a normal subset of the current population), QTD >58 ms was
present in 76 participants (4.1%) and was associated with
significantly greater all-cause mortality by Kaplan-Meier
analysis (Figure 2
), with
an
2-fold (hazard ratio, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.1 to 3.3) increased risk of
death. Actuarial 5-year mortality was 32% among participants with
abnormal QTD and 18% among those with QTD <58 ms. When
cardiovascular mortality only was examined (Figure 2
), QTD >58 ms was associated with a 3.4-fold (95% CI, 1.5 to
7.5) increased risk of cardiovascular death. Actuarial
5-year cardiovascular mortality was 18% among
participants with QTD >58 ms and only 5% among those with more normal
QTD.
|
Multivariate Cox analyses (Table 3
)
demonstrated that after adjustment for other potential predictors of
mortality, QTD considered as a continuous variable remained a
strong, significant predictor of cardiovascular
mortality (
2=12.5, P<0.0001) but
was no longer an independent predictor of all-cause mortality
(
2=1.3, P=0.25). After these risk
factors were controlled for, QTD >58 ms was associated with a 2.8-fold
(95% CI, 1.1 to 6.6) increased risk of cardiovascular
death. When both QTc and QTD were entered with other risk factors into
the Cox multivariate regression analysis for
prediction of cardiovascular death, both QTc
(
2=10, P=0.0012) and QTD
(
2=4, P=0.05) remained significant
independent predictors of cardiovascular mortality.
| Discussion |
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QT Dispersion
Ventricular repolarization is a complex process
occurring nonuniformly in space and time, with the ST segment and T
wave on the surface ECG reflecting an integrated signal from multiple
repolarization wave fronts.7 16 Although simple QTD on the
surface ECG provides only an imperfect estimate of the degree of
heterogeneity of repolarization,16 33
several studies have suggested that QTD helps identify patients at
increased risk of ventricular arrhythmias or
clinical events in a variety of clinical settings.1 2 3 4
However, the value of QTD in risk stratification has not been
uniform.5 6
Two recent studies highlight these conflicting findings on the
predictive value of QTD. de Bruyne et al3 demonstrated
that increased computer-measured QTD on digitally acquired ECGs
predicted all-cause and cardiovascular mortality after
adjustment for age, prior myocardial infarction, and overall QT
interval duration in 5812 men and women
55 years of age in the
Rotterdam Study of the elderly. In contrast, Zabel et al5
found no relation between QTD (or other ECG measures of dispersion of
repolarization such as the T-peak to T-end interval and T-wave area)
and adverse outcome in a prospective study of 280 patients after
myocardial infarction that used a custom computer
program16 to measure QT intervals from optically scanned
analog ECGs. The present study extends the application of QTD by
demonstrating in a population-based sample of middle-aged to elderly
adults with a high rate of mortality (10% over 3.7 years starting from
a mean of 55 years of age) that increased QTD at baseline confers
significant additional risk for cardiovascular death
after accounting for age, sex, and multiple cardiac risk factors,
independent of the impact of QT prolongation.
QT Interval
The QT interval on the surface ECG reflects a summation of the net
potential differences during ventricular depolarization and
repolarization, with the end of the T wave closely approximating the
longest duration of ventricular
repolarization.13 QT interval prolongation has been
implicated in the origin of ventricular
arrhythmias, possibly because of less uniform recovery of
ventricular excitability7 in the setting of
regional differences in cardiac sympathetic nervous system
activity.8 9 However, similar to QTD, the value of
increased QT interval for risk stratification has been variable
both in patients after myocardial infarction and in population-based
studies.10 11 12 13 14 The present study demonstrated that an
increased QTc, considered as either a continuous variable or by
identifying durations exceeding a discrete partition value, predicted
increased risk of all-cause and cardiovascular
mortality even when numerous other risk factors and increased QTD are
taken into account.
Although the increased risk of cardiovascular death in participants with prolonged QTc can be interpreted as reflecting the known associations of increased QTc with both underlying cardiovascular disease and an increased risk of ventricular arrhythmias,7 8 9 13 the ability of a prolonged QT interval to predict all-cause mortality is less readily explained. It is possible that an increased QTc is a marker of underlying disorders such as diabetes and renal dysfunction with an increased risk of early death, in which electrolyte abnormalities and/or medications could contribute to QT prolongation.13 14 On the other hand, QT prolongation might also reflect profound alterations in neurohormonal balance that could predispose to an increased risk of mortality.
Study Limitations and Implications
This study and previous investigations are affected by fundamental
limitations in the use of QT interval and QTD measurements. However,
the present study more completely addresses these limitations than
have previous studies. First, the accuracy and reproducibility of QT
interval and dispersion measurements have been limited by difficulties
with reliable identification of T-wave offset.15 16 17 18
However, the computerized method used to determine T-wave offset in the
present study has greater reproducibility than manual measurements
or other computer-based methods.17 18 Second, although the
partition values used for QTc (460 ms) and QTD (58 ms) are somewhat
arbitrary, they correspond to the 97th percentile values in the
apparently normal subset of the present population.34
Additionally, risk stratification by both QTc and QTD was statistically
significant when these criteria were examined as continuous
variables (Tables 2
and 3
), suggesting that risk
increases with increasing values of these measures and is not dependent
on the choice of specific partition values. Moreover, risk
stratification remained statistically significant even if alternative
thresholds of 50 ms for QTD34 and 440 ms for QTc were
used, further suggesting that the overall predictive value of these
measures in not strongly dependent on the precise partition values
selected. Indeed, the relative mortality risk was >2-fold higher for
our partition values, even after adjustment for other potential risk
factors, highlighting the potential clinical significance of these
findings for identifying patients in the general population who are at
increased risk of death. Further study is necessary to address the
predictive value of changes in QT interval and QTD over time.
| Acknowledgments |
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Received June 18, 1999; revision received August 4, 1999; accepted August 5, 1999.
| References |
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