(Circulation. 2000;101:1366.)
© 2000 American Heart Association, Inc.
Clinical Investigation and Reports |
4 Allele Determines Prognosis and the Effect on Prognosis of Simvastatin in Survivors of Myocardial Infarction
From the Departments of Internal Medicine and Cardiology, Aarhus Amtssygehus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark (L.U.G., C.G., I.C.K., P.S.H., O.F.), and the Department of Internal Medicine and Biocenter Oulu, Oulu University Hospital, Oulu, Finland (K.K., M.S., Y.A.K.).
Correspondence to Dr Lars Ulrik Gerdes, Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Aarhus Amtssygehus University Hospital, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark. E-mail ulrik.gerdes{at}dadlnet.dk
| Abstract |
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4
allele of the apolipoprotein E gene are at a higher risk of
coronary heart disease than individuals with other
genotypes. We examined whether the risk of death or a major
coronary event in survivors of myocardial infarction depended
on apolipoprotein E genotype and whether the benefits of
treatment with simvastatin differed between
genotypes.
Methods and ResultsCox proportional hazards models were
used to analyze 5.5 years of follow-up data from 966 Danish and
Finnish myocardial infarction survivors enrolled in the Scandinavian
Simvastatin Survival Study. A total of 16% of the 166
4
carriers in the placebo group died compared with 9% of the 312
patients without the allele, which corresponds to a mortality risk
ratio of 1.8 (95% confidence interval, 1.1 to 3.1). The risk ratio was
unaffected by considerations of sex, age, concurrent angina, diabetes,
smoking, and serum lipids in multivariate
analyses. Simvastatin treatment reduced the
mortality risk to 0.33 (95% confidence interval, 0.16 to 0.69) in
4
carriers and to 0.66 (95% confidence interval, 0.35 to 1.24) in other
patients (P=0.23 for treatment by genotype
interaction). Apolipoprotein E genotype did not predict the
risk of a major coronary event. Baseline serum levels of
lipoprotein(a) also predicted mortality risk and could be
combined with
4-carrier status to define 3 groups of patients with
different prognoses and benefits from treatment.
ConclusionsMyocardial infarction survivors with the
4
allele have a nearly 2-fold increased risk of dying compared with
other patients, and the excess mortality can be abolished by treatment
with simvastatin.
Key Words: apolipoproteins genetics myocardial infarction prognosis mortality
| Introduction |
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The common polymorphism of the gene coding for apolipoprotein
E (apoE) is already known to be associated with a differential
susceptibility to clinical coronary heart disease
(CHD).2 3 4 5 Risk is increased
40% in carriers of the
4 allele compared with carriers of the most common apoE
genotype,
3
3, or carriers of the
2
allele.5 Some studies also suggest that
4 carriers
are particularly prone to develop disseminated coronary lesions
and to die from CHD.6 7 8 9 10 The biochemical mechanisms
underlying these relationships are unclear, but they may relate to the
dysfunction of the encoded apoE4 isoform in lipoprotein
metabolism and the increased serum concentrations of
cholesterol and
triglycerides.2 11 12 13
We determined apoE genotypes in a subset of Danish and Finnish participants in the Scandinavian Simvastatin Survival Study to test 2 null hypotheses. The first was that risk of death or a recurrent major coronary event during the follow-up of survivors of myocardial infarction (MI) is independent of the apoE genotype. The second was that the benefit of treatment with simvastatin is independent of apoE genotype.
| Methods |
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2.5 mmol/L,
after dietary advice, were randomized to receive either placebo or
simvastatin. The initial dosage was 20 mg per day, which
was raised to 40 mg per day if serum total cholesterol
exceeded 5.2 mmol/L at 6 or 18 weeks. The patients were followed
for a median period of 5.4 years. The primary study end point was death
from any cause, and the secondary end point was a major
coronary event (MCE). The MCEs included coronary death,
nonfatal definite or probable MI, silent MI, or resuscitated cardiac
arrest. We used data from the Danish and Finnish patients who had been included with a history of MI as a qualifying diagnosis and from whom blood samples were available for apoE genotyping (61% of the 713 Danish patients and 61% of the 868 Finnish patients). Median follow-up time in this subset of patients was 5.5 years (range, 5.1 to 6.0 years for those surviving). Danish and Finnish patients differed in some respects. Thus, 55% percent of the Danes and only 48% of the Finns were 60 to 70 years of age, 40% of the Danes and 28% of the Finns had concurrent angina, and 41% of the Danes and 24% of the Finns were current smokers. However, 28% of the Finns and only 14% of the Danes had a history of hypertension, and 7% of the Finns and 3% of the Danes had diabetes.
Measurement of Apolipoproteins
Serum concentrations of apolipoprotein A-I (apoA-I) and B (apoB)
were measured by immunoturbidimetry using test kits with antisera and
standards from Orion Diagnostics. Serum
concentrations of lipoprotein(a) (Lp[a]) were measured using
immunoradiometric assay test kits from Pharmacia
Diagnostics.15
ApoE Genotyping
Genotypes in the Danish patients were determined using
the method of Hixson and Vernier,16 as previously
described.17 The genotypes in Finnish patients
were determined from protein phenotypes using isoelectric
focusing.18 We defined
4 carriers as patients with apoE
genotypes
2
4,
3
4, or
4
4.
Statistical Methods
All data were analyzed according to the
intention-to-treat principle, and P
0.05 (2-sided) was
regarded as significant. Risk (hazard) ratios with 95% confidence
intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards
models.19 20 We used backward stepwise variable
selection with removal testing, which was based on the probability of
the likelihood-ratio statistic to identify variables associated
with prognosis in patients on placebo (death, coronary death,
or MCE). P<0.05 was used as a criterion for both entry and
removal of variables. The initial model included
4-carrier
status, nationality, sex, age group (<60 or 60 to 70 years of age at
time of randomization), angina pectoris, hypertension, claudication,
diabetes, and smoking at baseline, as well as baseline levels of
high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density
lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, triglycerides,
apoA-I, apoB, and Lp(a).
In the resulting model, LDL cholesterol and Lp(a)
were dichotomized to estimate risk ratios associated with high levels.
The cut-off value was 4.75 mmol/L for LDL cholesterol
(the mean in all patients) and 30 mg/dL for Lp(a), which is a
conventionally used threshold value and also the lower limit for the
upper tertile in all patients. To assess the significance of the
possible modification of risk ratios for
4 carriers across strata by
nationality, age, sex, angina, smoking, LDL levels, and Lp(a) levels,
we used models with forward selection of interaction terms that were
based on the probability of the likelihood-ratio statistic. To examine
the influence of baseline plasma lipoprotein levels on the risk ratio
estimates for
4 carriers, we used models with LDL
cholesterol (or apoB), high-density lipoprotein
cholesterol (or apoA-I), and triglyceride
forced into the models.
| Results |
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4 allele. Numbers of deaths,
split into noncoronary and coronary deaths, and numbers
of MCEs during follow-up in patients treated with placebo or
simvastatin are shown in Table 2
|
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ApoE Genotype and Prognosis in 478 MI Patients on
Placebo
Figure 1
shows Kaplan-Meier survival
curves for patients with and without the
4 allele. The crude
risk ratio for
4 carriers was 1.8 (95% CI, 1.1 to 3.1).
|
Table 3
shows the results of
multivariate analyses. Variables in the
models emerged from backward selections with either death,
coronary death, or MCE as outcomes. The
4 allele, male
sex, age>60 years, concurrent angina, diabetes, and high Lp(a) levels
were all associated with total mortality risk ratios >1.5, whereas the
effects of smoking and high LDL cholesterol were smaller
and not significant. The same pattern was seen for coronary
deaths, except that male sex and age seemed to be less important and
diabetes and smoking more important. Risk ratios for a MCE were
generally lower than for death, except for high LDL
cholesterol. Only this trait, male sex, and diabetes were
significant predictors of a MCE.
|
No significant interactions existed between
4-carrier status and the
other variables for either outcome (death or MCE), although the
size of a coefficient for an
4 carrier by smoking interaction
approached significance for death (P=0.010). Hence, when
analyses were split by smoking status, the
multivariate mortality risk ratio for
4 carriers was
2.9 (95% CI, 1.4 to 6.1) in nonsmokers and 1.2 (95% CI, 0.5 to 2.8)
in smokers. Nationality was not a determinant of risk.
Nevertheless, we forced nationality into the
multivariate models and tested for interaction with
4-carrier status. The probability values for interaction under the
null hypotheses were 0.44, 0.75, and 0.65 with death, coronary
death, and MCE as the outcome, respectively, which indicates the
homogeneity of the findings for
4 carriers among Danes and
Finns.
A total of 45% of the patients were either
4 carriers or had
high baseline Lp(a) levels. As shown in Table 4
, these patients had an adjusted
mortality risk ratio of 2.3 (95% CI, 1.1 to 4.5) compared with
patients who were not
4 carriers and who had low Lp(a) levels. The
smaller group of patients (13%) who were
4 carriers and who had
high Lp(a) levels had a risk ratio of 3.7 (95% CI, 1.7 to 8.1).
Corresponding risk ratios for coronary death were 1.9
(95% CI, 0.9 to 4.3) for
4 or Lp(a) and 3.3 (95% CI, 1.3 to 8.1)
for
4+Lp(a), respectively; for MCEs, they were 1.1 (95% CI, 0.8 to
1.7) for
4 or Lp(a) and 1.5 (95% CI, 0.9 to 2.4) for
4+Lp(a),
respectively.
|
ApoE Genotype and Effect of Simvastatin on
Mortality Hazard
The survival of treated patients who were or were not
4
carriers was nearly the same (Figure 2
).
Comparisons with the data in Figure 1
, therefore, suggest that
treatment is particularly beneficial for
4 carriers.
|
The results shown in Table 5
lend
further support to this concept. Compared with patients on placebo, the
risk of dying was reduced to 0.49 in all treated MI patients.
The risk was reduced to 0.33 in
4 carriers, which was half
the value in patients without
4 (P=0.21 for treatment by
apoE genotype interaction). As shown in Figure 3
, the apparent difference in risk
reduction was not associated with differences in LDL
cholesterol response to treatment. We also examined the
effect of treatment on mortality risk in the 4 groups of patients
defined by
4-carrier status and/or high Lp(a) levels (Table 5
). Mortality was reduced to the same low level (5% to 7%) in
all groups (data not shown); thus, treatment reduced mortality risk by
13% in patients who were not
4 carriers and who had low Lp(a)
levels, by 50% in patients who either were
4 carriers or had high
Lp(a) levels, and by 80% in patients who had both risk factors
(P=0.24 for treatment by group interaction).
|
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| Discussion |
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4 allele
have about twice the risk of dying during a follow-up period of
5.5
years compared with patients who are not
4 carriers and (2) that
these
4 carriers seem to benefit particularly well from treatment
with simvastatin. To our knowledge,
4 is, therefore, the
first example of a common genetic marker that identifies a subgroup of
coronary patients that is simultaneously at a
higher risk of death and particularly prone to benefit from preventive
treatment. Findings of this kind have been predicted by genetic
epidemiological research in this field.21 22 23
The association of
4 with risk of death was mainly due to an
increased risk of coronary death, the most common cause of
death in these patients. Nevertheless, an excess of
5
noncoronary deaths among
4 carriers also contributed to the
increase in the mortality risk ratio.
Risk of Death Versus MCE
The increased risk of (coronary) death due to
4 was not
accompanied by an increased risk of a MCE, which in most cases was
recurrence of MI. However, this finding was not particular to
4; it also pertained to age, concurrent angina, diabetes, smoking,
and Lp(a) levels as predictors (Table 3
).
The possibility that the association of
4 with mortality could be a
chance finding due to small numbers is unlikely because it was
consistent across strata by nationality, sex, and the other
variables. We also considered whether the estimated risk ratio for
a MCE was biased toward unity. This could happen, for instance, if some
cases of nonfatal events were falsely diagnosed and others were missed,
ie, so-called nondifferential misclassification.24
However, misclassification was unlikely to have occurred to a degree
that could negate a true risk ratio of
2 for a nonfatal MCE.
Possible Reasons Why
4 Specifically Associated With Risk of
Death
We then considered whether the discordant findings for risks of
fatal and nonfatal coronary events could be due to the
involvement of apoE in some particularly malignant pathogenic mechanism
that increased the risk of dying. Independent epidemiological evidence
supports this concept. A follow-up study of individuals initially free
of clinical CHD suggested that
4 carriers had a particularly high
risk of fatal events.7 Moreover, some angiographic studies
of CHD patients have shown that
4 carriers more often have
disseminated and severe coronary lesions than
noncarriers.6 8 10
The progression of coronary lesions is a strong predictor of
coronary events, especially fatal events,25 and
the rupture of a vulnerable plaque often precedes occlusive
coronary thrombosis and death.26 27 The evidence
for an association of
4 with increased progression rate is weak,
however,28 29 30 and we are not aware of studies
investigating the association of apoE genotype and the
occurrence of vulnerable plaques. It is, nevertheless, possible that
the ability of simvastatin treatment to abolish the
increased mortality risk in
4 carriers relates to the inhibition of
the progression of lesions and/or the stabilization of vulnerable
plaques.31
Increased risk and the beneficial effect of simvastatin
could be due to the higher serum LDL cholesterol and
triglyceride levels found in patients with
4 than in
patients with other genotypes, as suggested by earlier
studies.2 12 However, 3 observations make this explanation
unlikely and suggest instead that the effect of
4 may involve
pathogenic mechanisms unrelated to serum lipoproteins. (1) Baseline
lipid levels did not differ between apoE genotypes (Table 1
), possibly because the criteria for recruiting patients
necessarily resulted in truncated distributions of the variables or
because prerandomization dietary treatment could have reduced the
differences.32 (2) The inclusion of lipid variables in
multivariate models did not influence the estimated
mortality risk ratio in
4 carriers. (3)
4 carriers and patients
with other genotypes were equally responsive to
simvastatin treatment in terms of LDL
cholesterol lowering (Figure 3
). Other studies have
indicated that
4 carriers, if anything, are less responsive to
statin treatment than other individuals.33 34 Therefore,
no evidence linked differential risk reduction to a corresponding
differential LDL cholesterol lowering.
ApoE plays roles in neuronal function and, possibly, also in platelet function and coagulation.35 36 37 38 39 Hence, the pathogenic mechanisms involved could relate to coronary vascular reactivity and thrombogenesis.
Effects of
4 and Lp(a)
A study of all participants in the Scandinavian
Simvastatin Survival Study showed that the baseline serum
Lp(a) level was associated with a risk of death and MCE.15
In the present study, serum Lp(a) levels >30 mg/dL were associated
with a 2-fold increased mortality risk. High Lp(a) levels are mainly
found in carriers of small KpnI alleles at the apolipoprotein(a)
gene; this is a relatively constant trait in these
individuals.40 In this study, it seemed that the presence
or absence of
4 and high or low Lp(a) levels could be combined to
define 3 groups of patients with markedly different risks of death when
treated with placebo (Table 4
). With simvastatin,
however, the same low mortality rates were obtained in all groups.
Hence, the combination of apoE genotyping and the measurement of serum
Lp(a) levels may be used to identify groups of patients who are
genetically vulnerable and particularly likely to benefit from
treatment.
Conclusions
The
4 allele has a lethal effect in survivors of MI that
seems unrelated to the lipid variables examined in this study.
Nonetheless, it can be abolished by treatment with
simvastatin. Although more studies are clearly warranted,
our findings demonstrate that molecular genetic information can be used
to improve the clinical management of patients with a common
disease.
| Acknowledgments |
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Received July 2, 1999; revision received September 25, 1999; accepted October 11, 1999.
| References |
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