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(Circulation. 2000;101:2803.)
© 2000 American Heart Association, Inc.
Clinical Investigation and Reports |
From Medizinische Klinik und Poliklinik I, Universitätsklinikum Charité, Arbeitsgruppe Medizinische Biometrie, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
| Abstract |
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Methods and ResultsWe investigated 142 CHF patients (mean NYHA
class, 2.6; mean maximum oxygen consumption
[
O2max], 15.3 mL O2
· kg-1 · min-1; mean left
ventricular ejection fraction [LVEF], 27%). Patients
were compared with 101 healthy control subjects.
Cardiopulmonary exercise testing was performed, and ventilatory
efficiency was defined as the slope of the linear relationship of
CO2 and ventilation (VE). Results
are presented in percent of age- and sex-adjusted mean values.
Forty-four events (37 deaths and 7 instances of heart transplantation,
cardiomyoplasty, or left ventricular assist device
implantation) occurred. Among
O2max,
NYHA class, LVEF, total lung capacity, and age, the most powerful
predictor of event-free survival was the VE versus
CO2 slope; patients with a slope
130%
of age- and sex-adjusted normal values had a significantly better
1-year event-free survival (88.3%) than patients with a slope >130%
(54.7%; P<0.001).
ConclusionsThe VE versus
CO2
slope is an excellent prognostic parameter. It is easier to
obtain than parameters of maximal exercise capacity and is
of higher prognostic importance than
O2max.
Key Words: prognosis heart failure ventilation
| Introduction |
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O2max1 and
closely relates to symptomatology.2 3 Both NYHA class and
O2max have been proven to be
good predictors of prognosis in CHF. Therapy with ACE
inhibitors known to improve prognosis also betters
ventilatory efficiency.3 Ventilatory efficiency can be
derived from a moderate effort well before exhaustion and is highly
reproducible.1
Therefore, we investigated the impact of ventilatory efficiency in
CHF on outcome and compared it with other prognostic
parameters like left ventricular ejection
fraction (LVEF), NYHA class, and
O2max. To maximize the
physiological information from
cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPX), we normalized
O2max and the slope of
ventilation (VE) versus
CO2
for age and sex using our own control population.4 5
| Methods |
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Symptoms were attributed to heart and not lung disease in all patients,
albeit the mild abnormality of pulmonary function tests in some
patients was thought to be secondary to heart disease. Current smoking
status and smoking history are presented in Table 1
.
|
Origin and severity of CHF were determined by
echocardiography (n=130), chest radiograph (n=114),
or cardiac catheterization (n=95). Inclusion criteria
were a
O2max <25 mL
O2 · kg-1 ·
min-1 and either cardiothoracic ratio >0.5,
echocardiographic left ventricular
end-diastolic diameter
57 mm, or LVEF determined by
contrast ventriculography or echocardiography
45%. Mean LVEF was 27% (median, 26%). One hundred nineteen
patients were in sinus rhythm, 19 had atrial fibrillation, and 4 had
pacemaker rhythm.
Current medication included ACE inhibitors (89%), diuretics (69%), nitrates (67%), digitalis (52%), anticoagulants (30%), and antiarrhythmics (6%). Ten percent were on calcium antagonists, mainly for rate control, and 31% were on aspirin for coronary disease.
Control Subjects
One hundred one healthy volunteers 16 to 75 years of age (mean,
37±14 years) underwent CPX testing to establish age- and sex-corrected
normal values. Forty-five were female (weight, 60±8 kg; height, 165±6
cm), 56 were male (weight, 78±12 kg; height, 179±9 cm). Results have
been published in part elsewhere.4 Linear regression
analysis for age versus oxygen consumption and VE versus
CO2 slope revealed the
following mean normal value formulas: VE versus
CO2 slope: 0.13xage+19.9 for
men and 0.12xage+24.4 for women;
O2 at the gas exchange
anaerobic threshold
(
O2AT): -0.17xage+28.6 for
men and -0.16xage+24.2 for women;
O2max: -0.36xage+51.5 for
men and -0.34xage+44.6 for women.
For prognostic analysis, oxygen consumption and VE versus
CO2 slope values are
presented as percent predicted (PP) from the individual age-
and sex-corrected mean normal values.
Exercise Testing
In all patients and control subjects, a symptom-limited CPX test
was performed according to the modified Naughton protocol6
with a Medical Graphics CPX/D system. Details of our test protocol have
been published earlier.4
Great effort was undertaken not to stop exercise prematurely. However, indications to stop the test were a higher degree of AV block or ventricular tachycardia >5 consecutive beats at a rate >120/min, new atrial fibrillation, ST-segment depression >3 mm, or systolic blood pressure >260 mm Hg, as well as a progressive decrease in blood pressure.
O2max was defined as the peak
O2 measured, always occurring
well beyond the anaerobic threshold.
O2 at
O2AT was detected by the
V-slope method,7 8 supplemented by
simultaneous observation of end-tidal gas concentrations
(PETO2/CO2).
Ventilatory efficiency on exercise was measured by plotting VE against
CO2. This plot revealed a
linear relationship (r=0.98 to 0.99). The ventilatory
efficiency on exercise is represented by its slope. The
nonlinear part of this relationship after onset of acidotic drive to
ventilation8 was excluded.
Lung Function Tests
Routine lung function tests, including total lung capacity
(TLC), forced expiratory volume in 1 second
(FEV1), inspiratory vital capacity (IVC), and
diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO), were
expressed as percent predicted of normal PP. Oxygen saturation was
continuously measured percutaneously by pulse oximetry
on the ear lobe. Breathing reserve was calculated as
100-(100xVEmax/resting
FEV1x41).9
Follow-Up Data on Prognosis
Follow-up events included overall deaths, cardiac
transplantation (HTX), implantation of a left ventricular
assist device (LVAD), or cardiomyoplasty. Most patients had a follow-up
of >1 year. Minimal follow-up was 6 months. One patient was lost to
follow-up.
Statistical Analysis
Results are presented as mean±SD. For comparison
between groups, the Mann-Whitney U test was used; to compare
prognostic parameters, linear and logistic regression
analyses were performed. Correlations were determined according
to Bravais-Pearson or Spearman. The follow-up data were
analyzed by Kaplan-Meier life-table analysis and the
log-rank test. To define the cutoffs giving the best discrimination in
defining the likelihood of event-free survival, univariate
log-rank tests (Mantel-Haenszel)10 were used. A
multiple Cox regression analysis was performed using LVEF,
O2max, VE versus
CO2 slope, age, TLC, and NYHA
class.11
Classification trees (CART) were constructed with subgroups internally as homogeneous and externally as heterogeneous as possible, measured on the corresponding log-rank test.12 13 The successive splits of the tree correspond to the features with the greatest prognostic importance. For diagnostic testing sensitivity, accuracy and ORs were estimated.
| Results |
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O2AT and
O2max were 10.7±3.2 and
15.2±4.7 mL O2 ·
kg-1 · min-1
(median, 57 and 47 PP), respectively, in the patient group. The VE
versus
CO2 slope was
39.3±16.4 (median, 128 PP). There was no difference between the 2
major etiologic subgroups.
At termination of exercise, patients used 44±15% of maximal breathing
capacity; healthy volunteers, 59±12%. In patients and in all NYHA
subgroups,
O2max was reached
earlier after
O2AT than in
normal subjects
(
O2AT/
O2max
in patients, 71±11%; in normal subjects, 58±9%;
P<0.001; see Table 2
).
Termination of exercise because of angina or by the physician did not
influence the
O2AT/
O2max
ratio. Patients with normal and reduced ventilatory efficiency had
similar
O2AT/
O2max
ratios (71±11% versus 72±10%).
|
Oxygen Desaturation and Lung Function Testing
In 6 of 142 patients, a significant decrease in oxygen saturation
(
4%) was found (mean, 96% to 87%). Five of these were in NYHA
class III, and 1 was in class IV. One had a small atrial septum defect,
and 1 had suspected pulmonary embolism with extremely elevated
VE versus
CO2 slope (140)
normalized at reevaluation. The other 4 had severe CHF
(
O2AT, 4.7 to 9.0;
O2max, 6.1 to 11.2 mL
O2 · kg-1 ·
min-1; VE versus
CO2 slope, 57 to 85), and all
4 died within 2 years. Lung function and smoking status are given in
Table 1
.
Relationship Between Ventilatory Efficiency, Symptoms, and
Exercise Capacity
Ventilatory efficiency was impaired (VE versus
CO2 slope >35) in 46% of
patients. Patients with reduced ventilatory efficiency had lower LVEF
(20±7% versus 25±8%; P<0.001) and
O2max (12.2±3.6
versus 17.8±3.9; P<0.001) than patients without reduced
ventilatory efficiency.
Results in various NYHA classes are presented in Table 2
. The VE versus
CO2
slope but not
O2AT or
O2max was significantly
different in all NYHA classes (P<0.05), but the correlation
between VE versus
CO2 slope and NYHA
class was not very good (r=0.44; P<0.001).
Exercise ventilatory efficiency correlated with
O2AT
(r=-0.70, P<0.001),
O2max
(r=-0.70; P<0.001), and exercise time
(r=-0.53; P<0.001) but only weakly with LVEF
(r=-0.17; P=0.048).
The correlations between exercise capacity and ventilatory efficiency
were similar using the PP values
(VO2max PP and slope PP:
r=-0.64; P<0.001;
O2AT PP and slope
PP: r=0.65; P<0.001).
Follow-Up of Vital Status
Thirty-seven deaths occurred during follow-up. An additional 7
patients survived HTX, cardiomyoplasty, or LVAD implantation. Eight
deaths occurred at various time intervals after prior HTX, LVAD, or
cardiomyoplasty. Median event-free survival was 38 months (overall
survival, 39 months). Univariate Kaplan-Meier
analysis of event-free survival revealed significant survival
differences (log-rank test) with cutoff points for
O2AT at 10 mL ·
kg-1 · min-1 or
30, 45, and 50 PP;
O2max at
10, 12, and 14 mL · kg-1 ·
min-1 or 45 PP; and VE versus
CO2 slope at 35 and 40 L/L
CO2 or 125 and 130 PP.
Figure 1
shows the event-free survival
for the total group, and Figure 2a
and 2b
shows Kaplan-Meier life-table analyses (event-free survival)
for the best cutoffs, ie,
O2max (>45 versus
45 PP)
and VE versus
CO2 slope (
130
versus >130 PP). The best cutoff for
O2AT was >50 versus
50 PP
(life table not shown).
|
|
In a multivariate Cox regression analysis, the
following items were included: age, LVEF, NYHA class,
O2max, VE versus
CO2 slope, and TLC. The
analysis revealed the VE versus
CO2 slope to be the most
powerful predictor of event-free survival, followed by
O2max.
O2max did not substantially
improve the predictive value of the model. Classification trees were
used to estimate the practical usefulness of the model to predict
1-year overall and event-free survival. Of the 141 patients, 105 were
survivors of the first year of follow-up, and 103 survived without an
event. According to the best discriminating variable and cutoffs in
the log-rank statistics, we included the following
parameters/cutoffs in the CART analysis:
O2AT cutoff, 50 PP; VE versus
CO2 slope, 130 PP; NYHA
functional class, I/II versus III/IV and I to III versus IV;
O2max cutoff, 45 PP; age, 65
years; and LVEF, 25%. The VE versus
CO2 slope had by far the
highest log-rank test value (25.65; P<0.0001), followed by
O2max (with a
log-rank test value of 7.57; P=0.0059). The VE versus
CO2 slope was
therefore used as the first parameter to dichotomize the
patients. Analysis for event-free and overall survival revealed
essentially the same: both the VE versus
CO2 slope in PP and
the
O2max PP
represented important information for the prognosis.
Patients with a VE versus
CO2 slope
130 PP
had a significantly better 1-year event-free survival (88.3%) than
patients with a slope >130 PP who had a 1-year event-free survival of
only 54.7% (overall survival, 88.3% versus 57.8%).
Patients with a VE versus
CO2
slope >130 PP but a
O2max
>45 PP had a 79.2% 1-year event-free survival. No other
parameters were useful to further characterize the
prognosis of patients with a VE versus
CO2 slope
130 PP who had a
good prognosis. For details, see Figure 3
.
|
The sensitivity and specificity of a VE versus
CO2 slope with a cutoff of 130
PP for survival were 70.3% and 63.5%; positive and negative
predictive values were 40.6% and 85.7%, accuracy was 65.3%, the OR
was 4.1, and the 95% CI was 1.9 to 9.0.
| Discussion |
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|
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One of the most prominent features of dyspnea in CHF is hyperpnea, ie,
an increase in ventilation relative to gas exchange. It is caused by
early anaerobic metabolism, an increase in
anatomical dead space by increased breathing rate and
low tidal volumes caused by secondary restrictive physiology or
respiratory muscle fatigue,16 a decreased
PaCO2 set point resulting from
acidosis, disturbances of diffusion,17 activation
of muscle ergoreceptors,18 and respiratory muscle
deoxygenation.19 The most important cause
of hyperpnea, however, is the increase in
physiological dead space by alveolar
hypoperfusion20 21 Therefore, we investigated the
prognostic importance of ventilatory efficiency in patients with CHF
and compared it with other currently used prognostic
parameters like LVEF,22 23 NYHA
class,24 25 and
O2max.
Population Under Study
Patients suffered mainly from coronary disease or dilated
cardiomyopathy similar to recently reported
patients.26 All patients had an LVEF
45%; all NYHA I
patients had an LVEF <35%.
There was no difference in smoking status in patients with reduced
compared with normal ventilatory efficiency. Differences in
pulmonary function tests were small and thought to be secondary
to CHF. Lungs were somewhat smaller in patients with reduced
ventilatory efficiency, as has been shown in normal subjects under
exercise27 and in persons susceptible to high-altitude
pulmonary edema.28 This might contribute to
/
mismatch by making a small ventilation-perfusion
inequality more important. The slight decrease in TLC in our patients,
however, is unlikely to contribute to a larger extent to the decrease
in ventilatory efficiency. Forty-six percent of patients had reduced
ventilatory efficiency (median, 128 PP).
Similar to Veterans Administration Heart Failure Trial (V-HeFT)
findings,29 mean
O2max was 15.2 mL ·
kg-1 · min-1, and
cardiocirculatory limitation was confirmed by the high breathing
reserve at the end of exercise, low rate of oxygen desaturation, and
absence of pulmonary disease.
The lack of any important correlation to LVEF is not
unexpected,23 30 and an LVEF
30% might not give very
useful information regarding prognosis.14 31 More than
70% of our population had an LVEF
30%.
Follow-Up of Vital Status and CHF Events
Prognostic parameters in CHF24 include
symptoms,25 32 33 hemodynamics, LVEF,
cardiothoracic ratio,29 neurohormones,34 35
electrolytes,36 and
O2max.31 37 38 We
used
O2 PP derived from our
own large control population. Among LVEF, NYHA class, age, and TLC, the
VE versus
CO2 slope was the
most powerful indicator of prognosis in a multivariate
analysis.
VE/
CO2 ratio and slope are
known to correlate to
O2max.39 Our
results demonstrate that the VE versus
CO2 slope contains prognostic
information in addition to and beyond the measurement of
O2max: Patients with a VE
versus
CO2 slope >130 PP had
a 1-year mortality >40%, and even if
O2max were preserved, 1-year
mortality was >20%. Ventilatory efficiency is easier to obtain than
O2max and can be derived from
a submaximal exercise test. The high negative predictive value of a
normal ventilatory efficiency (ie, slope
130 PP) is of special
clinical relevance for patients with low
O2max or those who cannot
exercise until exhaustion.
Underlying Physiology and Study Limitations
This study lacks an explanation of how ventilatory efficiency
affects prognosis in CHF. Although normal ventilatory control in
CHF40 has been shown, an uncoupling of ventilation from
CO2 production41 has also
been reported and thought to be due to activation of muscle
ergoreceptors. However, substantial changes in arterial
CO2 tension have not been
found,40 42 43 and the changes in
physiological dead space suggested by increased
ventilation40 42 43 and near-normal
PCO2 would thus be secondary.
An alternative explanation is that the increase in physiological dead space is directly caused by alveolar hypoperfusion44 resulting from impaired endothelial vasodilatory capacity45 46 47 or neuroendocrine activation.35 48 If this theory is correct, the "muscle hypothesis" would not easily fit in.
A major diffusion disturbance17 49 is an unlikely explanation for the derangement of ventilatory efficiency because CO2 diffuses much more easily than oxygen and a decrease in oxygen saturation has not been found in >95% of our patients. It might become important in severe CHF with prominent congestion.
Another limitation of our study is that not all patients stopped
exercise for dyspnea or fatigue. This might introduce a considerable
error through ischemic pump dysfunction. However, the
reluctance to include patients with angina would not have reliably
excluded silent ischemia, nor would it be meaningful to
disregard some contribution of ischemia in a setting of CHF,
whose leading cause is ischemic heart disease. Furthermore,
dyspnea might be the only symptom of angina. Thus, in any exercise
testing of CHF patients, ischemia is likely to play some part.
The VE versus
CO2 relationship
should, on the contrary, be of special value in this population,
because it is measured well before the onset of angina or
ischemia. Furthermore, the exclusion of patients who stopped
exercise before the onset of dyspnea or fatigue led to a similar ratio
of
O2max/
O2AT.
This indicates that our patients did not stop because of angina;
rather, ischemia concurred with the limitation by CHF at the
end of exercise in some of them.
Despite these limitations, our results show that measurement of the VE versus VCO2 relationship offers a unique way of estimating the prognosis of patients with CHF. During preparation of this article, similar results have been obtained by an independent group.50 Given the possibility of therapeutic influences on ventilatory efficiency,3 this might also provide a useful tool to guide therapy, especially in severe CHF.
| Acknowledgments |
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| Footnotes |
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Received September 14, 1999; revision received January 15, 2000; accepted January 25, 2000.
| References |
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