(Circulation. 2000;102:1761.)
© 2000 American Heart Association, Inc.
Clinical Investigation and Reports |
From The Cleveland Clinic Foundation, Cleveland, Ohio (E.J.T., D.J.M., S.S.); Duke University, Durham, NC (E.M.O., A.S., R.M.C.); University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada (P.W.A.); Queens Medical Center University Hospital, Nottingham, UK (R.W.); Nottingham Clinical Trials Data Center, Nottingham, UK (A.M.S.); Flinders Medical Center, Bedford Park, Australia (P.A.); University of Sydney, New South Wales, Australia (J.S.); Milpark Hospital, Johannesburg, South Africa (A.D.); Hospital Clinic, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain (A.B.); Medical Clinic of the University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany (C.B.); Green Lane Hospital, Auckland, New Zealand (H.D.W.); St Lukes-Roosevelt Hospital Center, New York, NY (J.S.H.); Astra Charnwood Clinical R & D, Loughborough, UK (H.E.); and Hospital Bichat, Paris, France (A.V.).
Correspondence to Eric J. Topol, MD, Department of Cardiology, Cleveland Clinic Foundation, Desk F25, 9500 Euclid Ave, Cleveland, OH 44195. E-mail topole{at}ccf.org
| Abstract |
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Methods and ResultsAt 1-year follow-up, survival status was ascertained in 97.4% of the 15 059 patients enrolled in the GUSTO-III trial. At 1 year, the mortality rate for the t-PAassigned group was 11.06%, and for r-PA it was 11.20% (P=0.77). The absolute mortality difference of 0.14% has 95% CIs of -1.21% to 0.93%. There were no significant differences in outcome by intention-to-treat for the 2 different plasminogen activators in the prespecified groups (age, infarct location, time-to-treatment). The absolute difference in mortality rates between t-PA and r-PA progressively narrowed over the predetermined observation times after random assignment; it was 0.31% at 24 hours, 0.26% at 7 days, 0.23% at 30 days, and 0.14% at 1 year. Of note, mortality rate in the trial between 30 days and 1 year in 13 883 patients was 4.02% and did not differ between the treatment groups. However, this mortality rate was substantially greater than in GUSTO-I, in which mortality rate for t-PA versus streptokinase between 30 days and 1-year was 2.97% (heart rate 1.36, 95% CI 1.23, 1.50, P<0.001).
ConclusionsThe r-PA and t-PA strategies yielded similar survival outcomes after 30 days in this trial. The increase in mortality rate during extended follow-up compared with previous trials may reflect higher-risk patients and highlights the need for improved secondary prevention strategies.
Key Words: reperfusion myocardial infarction plasminogen activators
| Introduction |
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| Methods |
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One-year follow-up survival was determined in 14 674 patients, which represents 97.4% of the entire cohort. The completeness was balanced in the treatment arms: 97.3% for t-PA, 97.5% for r-PA. Follow-up after 365 days was censored at 365 days.
Statistical Analysis
The overall trial tested the superiority of r-PA compared with
t-PA, with 85% power to detect a 20% reduction of mortality rate at
30 days. Mortality rate during the 365-day observation period was
characterized by Kaplan-Meier curves. Odds ratios and 95% CIs were
used to compare the death rates between the treatment groups and among
subgroups. The protocol specified comparisons for the key subgroups
including age, infarct location, time to treatment, and geographic
origin from within or outside the United States. All tests of
significance were 2-tailed, and treatment comparisons were according to
the intention-to-treat principle.
| Results |
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For infarct location, patients with inferior MI had mortality rates of 7.95% and 7.92% for t-PA and r-PA, respectively (P=0.95). The death rate among patients with anterior MI was also similar: 14.18% and 14.39%, respectively (P=0.74).
The time-to-treatment subgroup analysis did not demonstrate a
significant treatment interaction. For treatment 0 to 2 hours, the
mortality rates were 8.33% and 8.04% (P=0.25). For 2 to 4
hours, the rates were 11.05% and 11.37% (P=0.67) and for
>4 hours 12.70% versus 14.34% (P=0.18) (Figure 3
). By Cox proportional hazards, time to
treatment was highly significant for predicting mortality rates
(P=0.001), but there was no significance for the interaction
of time to treatment and thrombolytic assignment
(P=0.25). The results are at some variance with the 30-day
data, which showed a significant time-to-treatment and drug
interaction.5 However, the trend of the maximal
difference between the drugs (if a difference does exist) for patients
treated beyond 4 hours is consistent (Figure 3
).
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For patients within the United States, the mortality rates were 10.15%
and 9.59% for t-PA and r-PA, respectively (P=0.57). Outside
the United States, the mortality rates were 11.46% and 11.96%,
respectively (P=0.44). The pattern of survival after 30 days
is shown in Figure 4
. The mortality
curves do not separate but in fact fully converge (and cross) at
several points. The 1-year mortality rates for survivors at 30 days
were 4.07% for t-PA and 3.99% for r-PA (P=0.81).
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The death rate between 30 and 365 days in GUSTO-III is markedly
disparate from GUSTO-I (Figure 5
). The
mortality rate after 30 days in GUSTO-I was 2.97%, whereas in the
current trial it was 4.02% (P<0.001). In GUSTO-I, the rate
did not vary by treatment assignment: accelerated t-PA (n=9670),
2.86%; streptokinase and intravenous heparin (n=9579),
2.92%; t-PA and streptokinase (n=9575), 3.04%; and streptokinase with
subcutaneous heparin (n=9057), 3.07%. As previously published with the
primary GUSTO-III findings, the patients in the current trial were
older, proportionately aged >75 years, 13.6% versus 10.5%, more
likely to be female (27.4% versus 25.2%), more likely to have
anterior MI (47.5% versus 39.1%), and had higher blood pressure on
admission (median systolic blood pressure of 135 mm Hg
versus 130 mm Hg).5
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| Discussion |
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In the present trial there was indeed durability of the early
findings, but the criteria of "parallelism" of the mortality curves
was different than the prior inactive (placebo or conventional care)
control trials. Unlike the GUSTO-I comparison of accelerated t-PA and
streptokinase at 1 year, there was a narrowing of the gap in the point
estimates of mortality. As shown in Figure 6
, the absolute difference narrowed
throughout the trial, with the maximum noted at 24 hours and the
minimum at 365 days. The mechanism for the observed reduction in the
difference between the plasminogen activators
is unknown but quite interesting to consider.
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An angiographic trial that directly compared r-PA and accelerated
t-PA showed better early infarct vessel patency for r-PA.9
From this observation and the association of early infarct vessel
patency and improved survival outcomes, the GUSTO-III hypothesis of
superiority of survival outcomes was generated. Quite unexpectedly,
there was no evidence of superiority for r-PA, and the absolute point
estimate was 0.23%, nonsignificantly in favor of t-PA at 30 days.
Interestingly, this absolute difference was nearly halved at the 1-year
follow-up point and represents a reverse trend than expected if
the early angiographic benefit had been manifest in improved survival
by such outcomes as 24-hour mortality rates. In contrast, in the
GUSTO-I comparison of t-PA and streptokinase, the reduced mortality
rate of t-PA was significant at 24 hours and tended to narrow slightly
at each subsequent point of reassessment until 1 year.10
The mechanism, therefore, to explain the current findings is unlikely
to stem from early infarct vessel patency. The finding that the
Kaplan-Meier curves cross each other several times for the 30-day
survival cohort (Figure 4
) suggests that any differences are due
to chance rather than complex multifactional biology. It remains
possible that there are differences of less subsequent reocclusion or
late reperfusion related to the more extensive fibrinogen breakdown
with r-PA than t-PA (ie, "fibrin selectivity") or less platelet
activation. On the latter point, there have been conflicting data thus
far reported on the relative effects on platelet activation between
r-PA and t-PA.11 12
The new data set offers the opportunity to readdress whether r-PA and t-PA can be viewed as "equivalent." This is a controversial topic in clinical trial methodology and it is virtually impossible to prove that two different therapies are truly "equivalent." This becomes a matter of interpretation, and the term "noninferiority" has been advocated as being more accurately descriptive. For fibrinolytic trials of acute MI, we have advocated that the 95% CI of 1.0% be used, since this was the absolute difference, denoting superiority, demonstrated in GUSTO-I for t-PA compared with streptokinase at 30 days. The findings at 1 year in the current trial indicate that although there is a trend toward less difference at 1 year compared with 30 days (0.14% versus 0.23%), the CI for the difference is wider as a result of the higher 1-year event rates. GUSTO III was not powered to address the question of "noninferiority" under an assumption of equal efficacy at 1 year. At the studied sample size, the lower 95% CI still overlaps the 1.0% absolute boundary, which would not be interpretable as "noninferior" with the use of these stringent standards. However, the 1.0% CI boundaries were suggested for 30 days,5 6 13 and no standard or consensus has emerged for differences at 1 year between reperfusion strategies.14
Finally, the excess of out-of-hospital mortality rates in the present trial compared with GUSTO-I is a disturbing finding. In light of more intensive pharmacological intervention after MI with aspirin, statins, ß-blockers, and ACE inhibitors, the 35% increase in late deaths is surprising. While this likely reflects a higher-risk population who were enrolled in GUSTO-III, it further highlights the challenges in the future to improve long-term outcomes after myocardial reperfusion.
| Footnotes |
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Received March 21, 2000; revision received May 9, 2000; accepted May 11, 2000.
| References |
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