(Circulation. 2001;103:638.)
© 2001 American Heart Association, Inc.
Clinical Investigation and Reports |
From the General Internal Medicine Section, Medical Service, Veterans Affairs Medical Center (J.A.S.), San Francisco, Calif; Division of Clinical Research, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medicine, University of California (J.A.S., F.H., J.F., S.B.H.), San Francisco, Calif; Department of Medicine, George Washington University (J.H.), Washington, DC; Department of Epidemiology, Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh (J.A.C.), Pittsburgh, Pa; Wyeth-Ayerst Research (C.R.), Radnor, Pa; Department of Family Medicine and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, University of California (E.B.-C.), San Diego.
Correspondence to Dr Joel A. Simon, General Internal Medicine (111A1), San Francisco VA Medical Center, 4150 Clement St, San Francisco, CA 94121. E-mail jasimon{at}itsa.ucsf.edu
| Abstract |
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Methods and ResultsPostmenopausal women (n=2763) were randomly assigned to take conjugated estrogen plus progestin or placebo. Primary outcomes for these analyses were stroke incidence and stroke death during a mean follow-up of 4.1 years. The number of women with strokes was compared with the number of women without strokes. A total of 149 women (5%) had 1 or more strokes, 85% of which were ischemic, resulting in 26 deaths. Hormone therapy was not significantly associated with risk of nonfatal stroke (relative hazard [RH] 1.18; 95% CI 0.83 to 1.66), fatal stroke (RH 1.61; 95% CI 0.73 to 3.55), or transient ischemic attack (RH 0.90; 95% CI 0.57 to 1.42). Independent predictors of stroke events included increasing age, hypertension, diabetes, current cigarette smoking, and atrial fibrillation. Black women were at increased risk compared with white women, and unexpectedly, body mass index was inversely associated with stroke risk.
ConclusionsHormone therapy with conjugated equine estrogen and progestin had no significant effect on the risk for stroke among postmenopausal women with coronary disease.
Key Words: cerebrovascular disorders hormones stroke
| Introduction |
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Based on observational studies, the effect of postmenopausal hormone therapy on the risk of stroke is uncertain. Recent case-control studies and cohort studies have reported that postmenopausal hormone therapy increases,1 decreases,2 3 4 5 6 or has no significant effect7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 on stroke risk. Because observational studies of postmenopausal hormone therapy may be confounded by differences in the characteristics of women who use postmenopausal hormones, eg, women who use postmenopausal hormones tend to be healthier than nonusers,16 17 clinical trial data are essential for discerning the unconfounded relation between postmenopausal hormone therapy and risk of stroke.
To examine the relation of postmenopausal hormone therapy to risk of stroke and transient ischemic attack (TIA), we analyzed data collected from the Heart & Estrogen-progestin Replacement Study (HERS), a secondary coronary heart disease (CHD) prevention study among postmenopausal women with known coronary artery disease.18 Stroke and TIA were prespecified secondary outcomes. HERS is the first clinical trial of postmenopausal hormone therapy to examine whether such therapy affects the risk of TIAs and stroke.
| Methods |
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Measurements
Baseline data included self-reported information on
participants age, ethnicity, marital status, highest grade or year of
school completed, number of pregnancies, past use of postmenopausal
estrogen therapy, level of physical activity, alcohol consumption,
smoking habits, and history of diabetes mellitus and hypertension.
Women with a history of gestational diabetes were not classified as
having diabetes mellitus. Data were also obtained on all current
prescription and nonprescription medications and vitamin preparations.
Participants were considered to have hypertension based on
self-reported history, a baseline systolic blood pressure >140 mm Hg,
or a baseline diastolic blood pressure >90 mm Hg. Women with a
history of thrombotic events or with uncontrolled hypertension or
diabetes were not enrolled. Details regarding the questionnaires,
physical examination, and laboratory procedures used in HERS have been
published
previously.18
Outcome Adjudication
Outcome adjudication for stroke and TIA events was
conducted after a careful review of medical records by 2 physician
adjudicators at the coordinating center who were blinded to treatment
status. Stroke events were defined as the rapid onset of a neurological
deficit attributed to an obstruction or rupture of the arterial system
not known to be caused by a brain tumor, infection, or other cause. The
neurological deficit had to last >24 hours or be confirmed by a lesion
compatible with an acute stroke on CT or MRI of the brain. Stroke
events were further classified as fatal or nonfatal and as ischemic or
hemorrhagic based on a review of brain imaging studies. A total of 10
strokes (6 nonfatal and 4 fatal) could not be classified as either
ischemic or hemorrhagic because of the absence of imaging
documentation. Adjudication of these strokes was based on a review of
all other available medical records. These events were excluded from
the analyses that examined the relation of hormone therapy to type of
stroke (ie, hemorrhagic versus ischemic) but were included in the
analyses of fatal and nonfatal stroke. TIA events were defined as the
rapid onset of a neurological deficit attributed to an embolus or
obstruction of the arterial system not known to be caused by a brain
tumor, infection, or other cause. Adjudication of TIA events was based
on documented neurological symptoms that lasted <24 hours and the lack
of an acute stroke on CT or MRI scan of the brain. The main study
results published in 1998 were based on the near-final data available
at the time.18 This article
includes the updated and final HERS results for cerebrovascular disease
events.19
Statistical Methods
We used unpaired 2-tailed
t tests to compare continuous
variables and
2 tests to compare
categorical variables. To analyze the association between hormone
therapy and incident stroke events, we used Cox proportional hazards
models. To examine the predictors of stroke, treatment assignment and
variables that were associated with stroke at the
P
0.20 significance level were
entered into each multivariate model. We used stepwise regression
procedures to retain variables associated with stroke at
P
0.05. We calculated the
hazard ratio and 95% CI to estimate the risk of TIA and stroke
(categorized as ischemic versus hemorrhagic and fatal versus nonfatal).
Participants who were judged to have had TIAs during the study were not
excluded from the analyses of stroke incidence. However, women who
suffered >1 nonfatal stroke (n=9) were excluded from the analyses of
nonfatal stroke after their first stroke event. Women who had
1
nonfatal stroke followed by a subsequent fatal stroke (n=7) were
included in analyses of predictors of fatal stroke. We also performed
survival analysis using Kaplan-Meier curves to compare time to all
incident stroke events (nonfatal and fatal stroke). Log-rank tests were
used to compare differences in survival
curves.
| Results |
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In analyses that examined the relation of hormone therapy to
risk of stroke, we found that hormone therapy was not significantly
associated with either risk of nonfatal stroke events (relative hazard
[RH] 1.18; 95% CI 0.83 to 1.66) or fatal stroke events (RH 1.61;
95% CI 0.73 to 3.55)
(Table 2
). Kaplan-Meier survival curves display the
cumulative percentage of strokes for both hormone therapy and placebo
groups over the entire duration of follow-up
(Figure
).
By the end of the study,
7% of women assigned to the hormone
therapy group experienced a fatal or nonfatal stroke compared with 5%
of women in the placebo group. This 2% absolute difference in stroke
risk, however, was not statistically significant
(P=0.20). The relation between
hormone therapy and risk of stroke was similar for ischemic or
hemorrhagic strokes, neither of which was significantly associated with
the use of hormone therapy
(Table 2
). Postmenopausal hormone therapy had no discernible
effect on risk of TIAs (RH 0.90; 95% CI 0.57 to 1.42), nor was it
associated with the risk for all combined cerebrovascular disease
events (any stroke or TIA) (RH 1.09; 95% CI 0.84 to 1.43).
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Using multivariable stepwise regression models, we examined
predictors of stroke events adjusting for treatment assignment
(Table 3
). A number of variables were significantly
associated with risk of stroke. As expected, older women and
participants with hypertension, atrial fibrillation, or diabetes, as
well as current smokers, were at increased risk for stroke. Black women
had approximately twice the risk of stroke as white women. Increasing
body mass index was associated with a decreased risk for stroke; a
1-unit increase in body mass index was independently associated with a
4% decrease in stroke risk. Additional multivariate models that
included all the variables noted in
Table 1
also found body mass index inversely associated
with risk of stroke. Baseline atrial fibrillation was the strongest
predictor of stroke among HERS participants and conferred a 6.5-fold
increased risk of stroke, even after controlling for the effects of
aspirin and warfarin therapy. Among participants with baseline atrial
fibrillation, stroke incidence did not differ by treatment assignment.
We examined whether statin use might affect the risk of stroke or TIA
and found no relation with either cerebrovascular disease
outcome.
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With the exception of level of education, there were no statistically significant interactions with postmenopausal hormone therapy. Additional adjustment for level of education and level of educationxtreatment assignment produced similar findings.
| Discussion |
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HERS is important because it is the first large randomized clinical trial to examine the effect of hormone therapy on risk of strokes, a predesignated secondary outcome of interest. Our findings concur with many recent observational studies that reported no significant association between postmenopausal hormone therapy and stroke risk.7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 However, some studies examining the relation between postmenopausal hormone therapy and stroke have reported that hormone therapy decreases stroke risk,2 3 4 5 6 and the Framingham Heart Study reported that it increased risk of stroke, at least among smokers.1 Our findings do not support the Framingham observation of an adverse interaction between postmenopausal hormone therapy and stroke among smokers. Because women who use postmenopausal hormone therapy tend to be more health-conscious than nonusers, it is possible that the ostensible beneficial effects of hormone therapy on risk of stroke reported in some observational studies may have resulted from such confounding.
Other Predictors of Stroke
Similar to the findings of others, we found that
increasing age, hypertension, diabetes, and cigarette smoking were
important independent risk factors for stroke
events.21 22 23 24
Black women in HERS experienced an increased risk for stroke events,
even after controlling for other factors. These findings also are
similar to those of other investigators and largely remain
unexplained.21 22
Baseline atrial fibrillation was the strongest predictor of stroke
events. The risk of a thromboembolic stroke in the presence of
untreated atrial fibrillation is 5% per
year.21 Among the 29 women
(
1% of HERS participants) identified with atrial fibrillation at
baseline, 55% of whom were given warfarin for anticoagulation, we
found a 6.5-fold increased risk of stroke, independent of
anticoagulation with warfarin and other risk factors. These estimates
concur with those from other studies that range from 6- to
18-fold.22 The risk of
stroke for women with atrial fibrillation did not differ by treatment
assignment, in contrast with the findings of Hart et
al,25 who reported that
postmenopausal hormone therapy conferred a 3-fold additional increased
risk of ischemic stroke in women with atrial fibrillation enrolled in
the Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation (SPAF) III trial. However,
HERS enrolled so few women with atrial fibrillation that there was
little power to observe such an association.
Although obesity is a less-well-documented risk factor for stroke, it is associated with established stroke risk factors, such as hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and hyperlipidemia, and may therefore be on the causal pathway to stroke.21 Whereas a number of recent studies have found no association between obesity and risk of stroke in women,8 26 27 some earlier studies reported obesity to be a stroke risk factor, either independent of28 29 or as related to hypertension or diabetes.30 31 32 In contrast, we found an inverse association between body mass index and stroke. This finding may have occurred by chance or may possibly reflect residual confounding by other risk factors, such as smoking. Of note, the Tecumseh study33 reported a higher risk of cardiovascular mortality (including stroke) among lean hypertensive individuals even after adjustment for smoking. We controlled for differences in hypertension, but like the Tecumseh investigators, we do not have an explanation for the observation of decreased risk among heavier women.
There were a number of limitations to our study. HERS was restricted to postmenopausal women with CHD, and therefore our findings may not be generalizable to other groups of women. Using data from HERS, we cannot separate the effects of estrogen from those of progestin. Much of the baseline data were obtained by self-report; hence, misclassification of some variables, such as diabetes mellitus, likely occurred. However, the magnitude of the risk for stroke associated with age, diabetes, and atrial fibrillation was similar to risk estimates from other studies. Because the main HERS trial did not collect data on dietary intake, markers of inflammation, or hemostasis, we are unable to comment on several other possible predictors of stroke. However, HERS was a randomized, blinded trial, and it is unlikely that our principal findings regarding the relation of estrogen plus progestin to stroke and TIA were affected by confounding or bias.
In conclusion, HERS is the first large randomized clinical trial to examine the effect of hormone therapy on risk of strokes. Our findings indicate that there is no significant association between postmenopausal hormone therapy and risk of stroke among postmenopausal women followed up for a mean of 4.1 years.
| Acknowledgments |
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| Footnotes |
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Received July 5, 2000; revision received September 21, 2000; accepted September 24, 2000.
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