(Circulation. 1997;96:3849-3859.)
© 1997 American Heart Association, Inc.
Articles |
From the Institute of Epidemiology and Social Medicine, University of Münster (Germany) (L.C., U.K.); the Department of Biostatistics, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill (L.C.); GSF-Institute of Epidemiology, Neuherberg, Germany (U.K., H.L.); Centre for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia (A.D.); MONICA Data Centre, Department of Epidemiology and Health Promotion, National Public Health Institute, Helsinki, Finland (M.M., K.K., A.-M.R.); and the Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, MONICA Quality Control Centre for Event Registration, University of Dundee (Scotland) (H.T.-P.).
Correspondence to Dr Ulrich Keil, Institute of Epidemiology and Social Medicine, University of Münster, Domagkstr. 3, D-48129 Münster, Germany. E-mail Keilu{at}uni-muenster.de
| Abstract |
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Methods and Results All 79 669 events of definite AMI or possible coronary death, occurring from 1985 to 90 among 5 725 762 people, 35 to 64 years of age, in 29 MONICA populations are the basis for CF calculations. Age-adjusted CF (percentage of CHD events that were fatal) was calculated across populations, stratified for different time periods, and related to age, sex, and CHD event rate. Median 28-day population CF was 49% (range, 35% to 60%) in men and 51% (range, 34% to 70%) in women and was particularly higher in women than men in populations in which CHD event rates were low. Median 28-day CF for hospitalized events was much lower: in men 22% (range, 15% to 36%) and in women 27% (range, 19% to 46%). Among hospitalized events CF was twice as high for recurrent as for first events.
Conclusions Overall 28-day CF is halved for hospitalized events compared with all events and again nearly halved for hospitalized 24-hour survivors. Because approximately two thirds of 28-day CHD deaths in men and women occurred before reaching the hospital, opportunities for reducing CF through improved care in the acute event are limited. Major emphasis should be on primary and secondary prevention.
Key Words: coronary disease epidemiology population registries MONICA Project myocardial infarction
| Introduction |
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| Methods |
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Thus all 79 669 events of definite AMI (NF1) or coronary death
(F1,2,9) occurring from 1985 to 1990 among 5 725 762 people, 35 to 64
years of age, are the basis for CF calculations. Data from 29
populations that met data quality criteria by October 1995 were used
(Table 1
). (Nine of 38 populations in the
MONICA Project were excluded from this report: Registration of
fatal events was incomplete in three populations; in one population,
data were inadequate to estimate CF; one had not registered events for
enough years; the quality of survival time data were insufficient in
two; and two had errors in coding events as hospitalized. Data are for
the years 1985 to 1990 except for Bremen, Germany (19851989), Friuli,
Italy (19851989), and Northern Sweden (19861990).
|
Definitions of Case Fatality
Events have been classified into four groups according to
survival: group 1 (G1), prehospital deaths, ie, persons who died before
hospitalization; group 2 (G2), patients who were hospitalized and died
within the first 24 hours after onset of symptoms; group 3 (G3),
patients who were hospitalized and survived the first 24 hours but died
within 28 days from onset of symptoms; and group 4 (G4), patients who
were hospitalized and survived 28 days after onset of symptoms.
From these groups, five definitions of CF are derived (Table 2
). These vary both in terms of the end
of the period of observation, 24 hours or 28 days, and the beginning,
considering all events, only hospitalized events, or only hospitalized
events where the person survived 24 hours after onset of symptoms. CF
was defined as the number of fatal events as a percentage of the total
number of fatal plus nonfatal events.
|
Coronary events are classified as first or recurrent AMI using information about history of previous AMI. Although this information is available for most hospitalized events, it is frequently lacking for prehospital deaths. Therefore, CF for first versus recurrent event is analyzed only in hospitalized events and those with unknown history of previous AMI were omitted from the calculations.
Age Standardization
Direct age standardization of the event rates and the mortality
rates was done according to the procedures of the WHO MONICA
Project,2,6 using the truncated Segi world
standard population weights 6, 6, 6, 5, 4, and 4 for the 5-year age
groups from 35 to 39, to 60 to 64 years,
respectively.12
Age-standardized CF was calculated with direct standardization for the
10-year age groups 35 to 44, 45 to 54, and 55 to 64 years, with weights
of 1, 3, and 7, on the basis of the age distribution of events for the
WHO MONICA Project as a whole. The age-standardized CF for a
population is given by
100(
wi[di/ei]),
where i=1, 2, 3 indicates the age groups, wi
denotes the weight, ei is the number of events,
fatal and nonfatal, occurring in age group i for that population, and
di is the number of fatal events. Approximate
95% confidence intervals are given by
100
wi(di/ei)±1.96
SE, where
SE2=1002(
wi2di[ei-di]/ei3).
Statistical Analysis
The relationships between CF and CHD event rates or age were
explored by means of graphs and simple linear regression, separately
for men and women. Sex differences in CF were analyzed by use
of women-to-men CF ratios as the dependent variable (to focus on
relative as opposed to absolute differences) and age and event rates as
possible explanatory variables. The analysis of the
variation of age-specific CF was mainly graphical.
| Results |
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Fig 1
shows sex-specific age-adjusted
percentages of all 28-day CHD deaths that occurred before
hospitalization; in the hospital within 24 hours after onset of
symptoms; and between 24 hours and 28 days after onset of symptoms,
among hospitalized events. For women, 42% to 75% (median 64%) of all
CHD deaths within 28 days occurred before reaching the hospital. This
was somewhat lower than for men, for whom the range was 58% to 80%
(median, 70%). Moreover, this percentage was lower for women than for
men in 22 of the 29 populations.
|
Tables 3
and 4
show age-adjusted CF by various stages
of the acute event. Among hospitalized events, 28-day CF was 15% to
36% (median, 22%) for men and 19% to 46% (median, 27%) for women.
However, when prehospital events were included, overall 28-day CF was
substantially higher: 35% to 60% (median, 49%) for men and 34% to
70% (median, 51%) for women. Hospitalized patients who survived 24
hours after onset of symptoms had much lower 28-day CF: 8% to 21%
(median, 14%) for men and 11% to 30% (median, 16%) for women.
Age-adjusted 24-hour CF was 29% to 51% (median, 41%) for men and
22% to 60% (median, 42%) for women.
|
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Age-adjusted 28-day CF for hospitalized events was higher for women than men in all 29 populations, by as much as an absolute 12%. However, prehospital CF was higher for women in only 13 populations. The combination of these different periods resulted in age-adjusted overall 28-day CF being higher for women in 21 out of 29 populations.
Fig 2
shows age-adjusted CF by several
definitions plotted against age-adjusted CHD event rate over the 29
populations by sex. For 28-day CF, there is no relationship for men and
a negative relationship for women. For example, by linear regression it
was estimated that for populations with an age-adjusted
coronary event rate 50 per 100 000 higher, the age-adjusted
28-day CF for women would be an absolute 4.3% lower
(P=.03). The relationship remained negative and
statistically significant for women for all other definitions of CF
except in 28-day CF for hospitalized 24-hour survivors. For men there
was no association with event rate for any definition of CF. The graphs
show that the strong relationship observed for women between 28-day CF
and CHD event rate was mainly due to an association between 24-hour CF
and CHD event rate.
|
The unadjusted and age-adjusted ratios of CF for women to CF for
men are shown in Table 5
for 28-day CF
and in Table 6
for 28-day CF for
hospitalized events. The ratios were all larger than unity for
hospitalized events (median, 1.32); they were always smaller for
overall 28-day CF (median, 1.09) than for 28-day CF for hospitalized
events. These ratios were generally reduced by age adjustment, but even
then the sex ratios in 28-day CF for hospitalized events remained
>1.20 and statistically significant for over half the populations
(median, 1.24).
|
|
There were statistically significant inverse associations between the
women-to-men ratios of age-adjusted CF and the mean (men and women
combined) age-adjusted CHD event rates for all definitions of CF (Fig 3
).
|
Fig 4
depicts the mean (all
populations) 28-day CF with 95% CI, by 5-year age groups, for men and
women. In men, the mean CF decreased from the 35-to 39-year age group
to the next by an absolute 3% (P=.26 by t test).
There was little change to the next 5-year age group, but from the 45-
to 49-year to the 60- to 64-year age group, there was a 5% to 7%
absolute increase in CF with each 5-year age group (each with
P<.02). Although the shape of the curve for women is
similar to that of men, the increase between age groups 40 to 44 and 50
to 54 was small. Between age groups 35 to 39 and 40 to 44, the mean
decrease was an absolute 5% (P=.25) and between age groups
55 to 59 and 60 to 64, the mean increase was 6% (P=.03).
Further, CF was higher for women than men in 22 of the 29 populations
at age 40 to 49 years, with a mean CF of 39% for men and 49% for
women. However, in the 55- to 64-year age group the mean 28-day CF was
nearly identical for men and women, being 54% and 55%,
respectively.
|
Table 7
shows CF for hospitalized events
for known first AMI and for known recurrent AMI. The percentage of
events for which AMI history was unknown was 0% to 33% (median, 2%)
for men and 0% to 38% (median, 2%) for women. Events for which the
determination of first versus recurrent could not be made were
excluded. CF was about twice as high for recurrent events as for first
events. The median of ratios of recurrent event to first event for
28-day CF for hospitalized cases was 2.1 for men and 1.7 for women.
(These are medians of the individual population ratios [not shown],
not ratios of the medians.) The medians of these ratios for
hospitalized cases who survived 24 hours were 2.2 and 1.9 for men and
women, respectively. Women-to-men ratios for 28-day CF were higher for
first than recurrent events: 1.34 and 1.17, respectively, for all
hospitalized cases, and 1.44 and 1.26, respectively, for hospitalized
24-hour survivors.
|
| Discussion |
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25% higher for women than men and was inversely associated with CHD
event rate.5 The assessment of sex differences in CF has received much attention9 but is greatly affected by the choice of definitions and by whether the study is population based or hospital based. Vaccarino et al9 reviewed 27 studies of sex differences in 1-month CF for hospitalized AMI events (with sufficient enzyme or ECG data to ascertain AMI). They found higher CF levels in women than in men in all but one study. Since mean age is greater for women CHD patients than for men, and CF is associated with age, it would be expected that age adjustment would reduce these differences. Indeed, in the 11 studies that presented both unadjusted and age-adjusted results, the age adjustment reduced the women-to-men ratio of CF to <1.2 and statistical nonsignificance in all but two studies. Although the age adjustment did generally reduce the sex differences in the 29 MONICA populations, the women-to-men ratio of 28-day CF for hospitalized events remained >1.2 and statistically significant in over half of the populations. In the MONICA populations, the women-to-men ratios of overall 28-day CF (including CHD deaths occurring before hospitalization) are closer to those reported by Vaccarino et al, namely <1.2 and statistically significant for only 5 of the 29 populations.
For both men and women, CF was higher in the 35- to 39-year age group than in the 40- to 44-year age group, reflecting either more severe disease or slower recognition and treatment of younger CHD patients. The difference between men and women in overall 28-day CF almost vanished by age 55 to 64 years, indicating the need for qualifying the statement that women have higher CF than men.
The WHO MONICA Project has also shown that in men CF was not related to the absolute magnitude of the CHD event rates in a population, but in women CF decreased with increasing CHD event rates. An interpretation of these differences is that some nonfatal AMI events are missed in populations with very low CHD event rates for women.5 A recent paper from the Glasgow MONICA center,11 which has high event rates and fairly complete data on previous CHD for out-of-hospital deaths, did not find significant CF differences between men and women at any age for overall 28-day CF, supporting the suggestion that higher CF for women in other populations could be due to failure to recognize nonfatal AMI cases. The Scottish paper however, as here, showed a significantly lower percentage of 28-day deaths in women than in men occurring before hospitalization and a significant excess of deaths afterward. More higher-risk women than men are surviving long enough to reach the hospital alive. This is why CF for hospitalized cases is higher in women than in men.11
The CF differences shown here between the several definitions serve to highlight the difference between population-based studies, which include prehospital deaths, and hospital-based studies, ie, the population versus clinical view of CF. Coronary heart disease CF of 40% to 50% is typically reported from community studies of AMI.13,14 In contrast, hospital-based studies that include deaths in emergency rooms and typically use CF definitions similar to ours for hospitalized events obtain CF of about half the size of our overall 28-day CF.1518 Coronary heart disease CF in cases who survive long enough to have data available on enzymes and ECG, ie, who survive several hours after reaching the hospital, is lower and may be closer to our CF for hospitalized 24-hour survivors.19
The variation across populations was least for overall 28-day CF. This may be due to the fact that other CF definitions are affected by how quickly people get to the hospital or receive thrombolytic therapy and by difficulties in classifying cases who die soon after arrival at the hospital. This also suggests that prehospital CF plus 24-hour CF for hospitalized patients is more valid for cross-population comparisons of early CF than prehospital CF. Variation in CF across populations was least for overall 28-day CF, which suggests that differences between populations in emergency care and transport to the hospital affect time of death rather than overall 28-day CF.
A great advantage of the WHO MONICA Project is its ability to provide both a population and a clinical perspective in the study of CF. In men, a rule of thumb might be that the overall 28-day CF is halved for hospitalized events and again nearly halved for hospitalized 24-hour survivors. This holds even among populations with widely differing 28-day CF. The respective percentages for women are slightly higher but are similar. In light of these population and hospital-based CF data, studies reporting very high survival figures for AMI patients should be put into perspective. They are likely to have investigated acute events rather late in their natural history, eg, when AMI patients have survived at least 24 hours in a coronary care unit.
Of all CHD patients who die within 28 days after onset of symptoms, about two thirds die before reaching hospital, therefore opportunities for reducing CF through improved care during the acute event are limited, emphasizing that the CHD epidemic can best be conquered by strengthening primary and secondary prevention for CHD.
| Acknowledgments |
|---|
| Footnotes |
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| Appendix 1 |
|---|
|
|
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Australia
University of Western Australia, Nedlands
M.S.T. Hobbs,4 K.
Jamrozik,4 R.W. Parsons, R. Broadhurst, C.
Spencer, P.L. Thompson
University of Newcastle
A. Dobson,1 S.
Leeder,2 H. Alexander, R. Heller, R. Gibberd, P.
Steele
Canada
Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia
R.D. Gregor,1 B.R. Mackenzie, P.M.
Rautaharju, H.K. Wolf1
China
Beijing Heart, Lung, and Blood Vessel Research Institute,
Beijing
W. Zhaosu,1 W.
Yingkai,2 Y. Chonghua, H. Zhaoguang
Denmark
Copenhagen University Hospital, Glostrup
M. Schroll,1 M. Kirchhoff, B. Hansen, S.Q.
Lund, H. Schnack, M. Madsen
Finland
National Public Health Institute, Helsinki
J. Tuomilehto,1 P.
Puska,2 M. Arstila, P. Immonen-Räihä,
E. Kaarsalo, M. Ketonen, S. Lehto, H. Miettinen, H. Mustaniemi, M.
Niemelä, P. Palomäki, K. Pyörälä, M.
Romo, V. Salomaa, J. Torppa, T. Vuorenmaa
France
National Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM
U258) Paris
J. Richard,3 A. Bingham
National Institute of Health and Medical Research,
Toulouse
J. Ferrières,1 J.B. Ruidavets, P.
Marqués-Vidal, J.P. Cambou,2 P. Rodier, C.
Saulet
Department of Epidemiology and Public
HealthFaculty of Medicine, Strasbourg
D. Arveiler,1 P.
Schaffer,1 A. Facello, E. MarineBarjoan, E.
Uettwiller, D. Jacques
Pasteur Institute and Study and Research Group on Myocardial
Infarction, Lille
P. Amouyel,1 M.
Montaye-Faivre,1 J.-L.
Salomez,2 M.-C. Nuttens,2
C. Graux, N. Marecaux
Germany
Bremen Institute for Prevention Research and Social
Medicine
E. Greiser,1 B.
Herman,4 G. Stüdemann
GSF-Institute for Epidemiology, Munich
U. Keil,1 H. Löwel, M. Lewis, A.
Hörmann, J. Gostomzyk, H.D. Bolte
Center for Epidemiology and Health
Research, Berlin
W. Barth,4 L.
Heinemann,4 E. Classen, D. Quietzsch, G. Voigt,
S. Brasche, S. Böthig
Iceland
Heart Preventive Clinic, Reykjavik
N. Sigfusson,1 I.I. Gudmundsdottir, I.
Stefansdottir, T. Thorsteinsson, H. Sigvaldason
Italy
National Institute of Health, Rome
A. Menotti,3 S. Giampaoli, A.
Verdecchia
Institute of Cardiology, Regional Hospital,
Udine
G.A. Feruglio,1
D. Vanuzzo, L. Pilotto,
A. Antonini-Canterin, M. Scarpa, G.B. Cignacco, M. Spanghero, M.
Palmieri
Research Center on Chronic Degenerative Diseases of the University
of Milan
G.C. Cesana,1 M.
Ferrario,1 G. De Vito, C. Bravi, M.T. Gussoni, R.
Sega, R. Zanettini, O. Agostoni
Lithuania
Kaunas Medical Academy, Institute of Cardiology
J. Bluzhas,1 V. Grinius, R.
Grazuleviciene, D. Rasteniene, D. Rastenyte
New Zealand
University of Auckland
R. Beaglehole,1 R.T. Jackson, A.W.
Stewart
Poland
National Institute of Cardiology, Warsaw,
Department of Cardiovascular
Epidemiology and Prevention
S. Rywik,1 G. Broda, P. Kurjata, H.
Wagrowska, M. Palakowska, W. Kupsc
Russian Federation
National Research Center for Preventive Medicine, Moscow
T. Varlamova,1 V. Naumova, M. Ossokina, N.
Serdyuchenko, N. Popova, E Bolshakova
Spain
Department of Health and Social Security, Barcelona
S. Sans,1 A. Puigdefàbregas, G.
Paluzie, I. Balaguer-Vintró2
Sweden
Department of Internal Medicine, Kalix Lasarett
F. Huhtasaari,1 V. Lundberg
Umeå University Hospital, Department of Medicine
P.O. Wester
United Kingdom
The Queen's University of Belfast, Northern Ireland
A.E. Evans,1 Z.M. Mathewson, E.E. McCrum,
A. Hall, T. Falconer, E.L. McIlmoyle
University of Dundee, Scotland
H. Tunstall-Pedoe,1 C. Brown, M.
Shewry
Royal Infirmary, Glasgow, Scotland
C. Morrison,4 G.
Watt,5 W. Leslie, B. Fitzpatrick
United States
Stanford Center for Research in Disease Prevention, Stanford,
Calif
S.P. Fortmann,1 M. Winkleby, A. Varady, D.
Jatulis, M. Hull
Yugoslavia
Novi Sad Health Center
M. Planojevi,1 D.
Jakovlevic,2 T. Dapi, D. Stoj
ic, M. Krco,
Z.
olak
MONICA Management Center-World Health Organization,
Geneva
I.Martin,6 I.
Gyarfas,7 S. Böthig,7
Z. Pisa,7 S.R.A. Dodu,7
M.J. Watson, M. Hill
MONICA Data CenterNational Public Health Institute,
Helsinki, Finland
K. Kuulasmaa,6 J.
Tuomilehto,7 A.-M. Rajakangas, E. Ruokokoski, V.
Moltchanov, J. Torppa, M. Mähönen
MONICA Quality Control Center for ECG CodingHungarian Institute
of Cardiology, Budapest
P. Ofner,6 A.
Madai7
MONICA Quality Control Center for Event Registration, University of
Dundee, Scotland
H. Tunstall-Pedoe,6 K. Barrett, C.
Brown
MONICA Steering Committee
A. Evans (Chair), M. Hobbs (Chair, Publications Subcommittee),
M. Ferrario, H. Tunstall-Pedoe (Rapporteur), K. Kuulasmaa, A.
Shatchkute, (WHO, Copenhagen), I. Martin (WHO HQ, Geneva)
Consultants: A. Dobson, Z. Pisa, O.D. Williams
Previous Members of Steering Committee: S. Sans, F. Gutzwiller, R. Beaglehole, U. Keil, S.L. Rywik, S.P. Fortman, P. Puska, A. Menotti. Former Chiefs of CVD/HQ: V. Zaitsev (WHO, Copenhagen), J. Tuomilehto
Former Consultants: M.J. Karvonen (Helsinki, Finland), R.J.
Prineas (Minneapolis, Minn); M. Feinleib (Bethesda, Md); F.H.
Epstein
(Zürich, Switzerland)
1Principal Investigator
2Former Principal Investigator
3Country Coordinator
4Co-Principal Investigator
5Former Co-Principal Investigator
6Responsible Officer
7Former Responsible Officer
Received June 30, 1997; revision received August 22, 1997; accepted August 29, 1997.
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I. Gunnarsdottir, B. E Birgisdottir, I. Thorsdottir, V. Gudnason, and R. Benediktsson Size at birth and coronary artery disease in a population with high birth weight Am. J. Clinical Nutrition, December 1, 2002; 76(6): 1290 - 1294. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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A. Capucci, D. Aschieri, M. F. Piepoli, G. H. Bardy, E. Iconomu, and M. Arvedi Tripling Survival From Sudden Cardiac Arrest Via Early Defibrillation Without Traditional Education in Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation Circulation, August 27, 2002; 106(9): 1065 - 1070. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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C.-K. Wong and H.D. White Has the mortality rate from acute myocardial infarction fallen substantially in recent years? Eur. Heart J., May 1, 2002; 23(9): 689 - 692. [Full Text] [PDF] |
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B. Kuch, H.-D. Bolte, A. Hoermann, C. Meisinger, and H. Loewel What is the real hospital mortality from acute myocardial infarction?. Epidemiological vs clinical view Eur. Heart J., May 1, 2002; 23(9): 714 - 720. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PD |