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Circulation. 1997;96:1122-1129

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(Circulation. 1997;96:1122-1129.)
© 1997 American Heart Association, Inc.


Articles

Electron Beam Computed Tomographic Coronary Calcium as a Predictor of Coronary Events

Comparison of Two Protocols

Angelo Secci, MD; Nathan Wong, PhD; Weiyi Tang, MD; Shaojun Wang, MD; Terence Doherty, BA; ; Robert Detrano, MD, PhD

From Harbor-UCLA Medical Center, Saint John's Cardiovascular Research Institute, Torrance, Calif.

Correspondence to Robert Detrano, MD, PhD, Harbor-UCLA Medical Center, 1124 W Carson St, Bldg RB-2, Torrance, CA 90502.


*    Abstract
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*Abstract
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Background We assessed the accuracy of two electron beam computed tomography (EBCT) protocols for predicting coronary events.

Methods and Results In 1994, 24 months after enrollment in a longitudinal study, 326 high-risk adults underwent both 3- and 6-mm image-slice thickness EBCT scanning and were followed up for 32.0±4.0 additional months. Events were defined as either coronary death, myocardial infarction, or revascularization. We monitored these subjects for the 32-month postscanning period with yearly phone calls and acquisition of records for all hospital admissions. At the time of scanning, 11 subjects (3%) had already suffered 12 events (5 infarctions and 7 revascularizations) during the 24-month prescanning period. During the postscanning period, 18 subjects (6%) suffered 23 events (5 coronary deaths, 6 infarctions, and 12 revascularizations). Thus, 28 subjects (9%) suffered 35 events. Calcium quantities calculated for both protocols, performed on the same subjects, were sorted in ascending order and divided into equal quartiles. When revascularizations were included, there was a significant trend toward higher frequencies of events with increasing calcium quantity (P<.01). However, coronary death and infarction were not significantly more frequent in higher quartiles. These relationships were preserved in the subjects without prior events at the time of scanning.

Conclusions Calcium quantities from the 3-mm and the more reproducible 6-mm scanning are equally accurate for predicting events. Coronary calcium amount appears to be a weak predictor of coronary death and infarction. Its predictive accuracy is superior for predicting revascularization.


Key Words: calcium • coronary disease • tomography • revascularization


*    Introduction
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up arrowAbstract
*Introduction
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The potential prognostic value of radiographically detectable coronary calcium has inspired great interest and some controversy.1 2 3 4 5 Some investigators have found a high predictive value of coronary calcium for coronary heart disease events in asymptomatic subjects.1 Others4 6 7 have expressed doubts regarding its predictive value, mostly because of the high prevalence of this finding in the general population8 and because of the uncertainty regarding the contribution of calcium to the probability of plaque rupture.9

The South Bay Heart Watch Cohort consists of 1461 subjects at high risk for coronary disease events who had neither experienced symptoms of coronary heart disease nor exhibited ECG evidence of prior infarction at the time of enrollment.8 10 Our initial findings using fluoroscopy demonstrated that both the presence of coronary calcium and the number of calcified vessels predict coronary events (defined as myocardial infarction, coronary death, and revascularization). Notably, however, 31% of subjects suffering infarction or coronary death had no coronary calcium detectable by fluoroscopy.

Such an imperfection in the predictive accuracy of the test may be due to factors involving the technical inferiority of fluoroscopy compared with EBCT. However, compelling evidence indicates that the pathological substrate of hard coronary events (infarction and sudden death) is plaque rupture,11 and it is unclear whether calcified plaques are more or less likely to rupture than noncalcified plaques.6 Although extensive calcification probably signifies extensive disease and the quantity of calcification roughly correlates with the quantity of atherosclerosis,12 13 calcification of individual plaques may imply plaque stability rather than instability.6 14 15

The results reported herein suggest that coronary calcific deposits, assessed with either 3- or 6-mm slice-thickness EBCT scans, predict coronary events in high-risk subjects when revascularization is included as an end point. However, serious coronary events may be common in subjects with little or no coronary calcium.


*    Methods
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up arrowAbstract
up arrowIntroduction
*Methods
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Study Sample
All 1461 subjects originally enrolled by the South Bay Heart Watch were asymptomatic at enrollment and had an 8-year Framingham Study risk of a coronary heart disease event that exceeded 10%.16 We recruited this cohort in the following manner. We evaluated 5023 subjects between December 1990 and December 1992. These subjects were >=45 years of age and had at least one coronary risk factor. We recruited them through newspaper and radio advertising and direct mail campaigns. A nurse administered an angina questionnaire and performed a risk factor evaluation. We excluded subjects with a history of prior myocardial infarction or angina.

The nurse used the risk factor information to calculate the risk of coronary events during an 8-year period according to the Framingham risk calculation algorithm16 and excluded subjects found to have a <10% risk. We enrolled the remaining 1461 subjects (29%) and invited them to return for follow-up visits after 1 and 2 years.

At the second of these follow-up visits, we asked the first 362 of these subjects to undergo a second risk factor evaluation for coronary calcification. The study sample of the present report consisted of the 326 consecutive volunteer subjects who agreed to return, undergo multiple testing, and be followed up for an additional 32 months. Risk factor evaluations, ECGs, and medication evaluations were done twice: at the time of recruitment into the study and 2 years later within 1 week before EBCT examination.

We considered family history of coronary disease to be pertinent if a first-degree relative had suffered a myocardial infarction, had died suddenly, or had undergone revascularization before the age of 65 years. We assessed history of smoking by asking subjects if they had ever smoked more than 10 cigarettes a day for at least 1 year. Diabetes or hypertension was considered present if a subject received dietary or medical therapy or both for these disorders. We measured height to the nearest half inch and weight to the nearest half pound. Body mass index was calculated as weight divided by the square of the height. The nurse recorded all relevant medication intake, including aspirin, ß-blocking agents, other antihypertensive agents, and hypolipidemic agents.

We measured systolic and diastolic blood pressures with a mercury sphygmomanometer twice at 3-minute intervals while the subjects were sitting for 5 minutes. Measurements differed by 3.4±7.8 and 0.4±0.5 mm Hg, respectively. We sampled blood from an arm vein after a 12-hour fast with subjects in a sitting position. Samples were allowed to coagulate at room temperature. We used the cholesterol oxidase technique to measure total cholesterol levels and measured HDL cholesterol after precipitation of the LDLs. We recorded ECGs with the subjects in a supine position to evaluate the presence of left ventricular hypertrophy. A Romhilt-Estes score17 of >=4 defined left ventricular hypertrophy. Three blinded cardiologists read all ECGs and resolved differences of opinion by consensus.

EBCT
We obtained EBCT results using an Imatron C-100 scanner. Scanning was done using a standard thin-slice protocol with 3-mm image slices and again with a more reproducible18 thick-slice protocol using 6-mm slices. Exposure time was 100 ms/image slice, and total skin radiation was <6 mGy/scan. ECG triggering was used so that image acquisition occurred after 80% of the RR interval. Transverse image slices of the heart were obtained contiguously beginning 1 cm below the carina and progressing caudally.

The EBCT scanner was examined by a physicist and was found to function without interslice gaps or overlaps. A standard calibration phantom19 20 was placed under each subject. This allowed calculation of calibrated mass estimates of hydroxyapatite content in each coronary artery.

Image Analysis
Each scan was examined by a cardiologist experienced in both coronary angiography and tomographic imaging. The area of each pixel was 0.34 mm2. An ROI 66 mm2 in area19 20 was created that was precisely centered on each focus of possible coronary calcification, defined as a volume of >=8.16 mm3 with a CT number >130 HU21 within the distribution of a coronary artery. The mean and peak CT numbers and the area of the subsets of pixels with CT numbers >130 HU and >0 HU within these regions were calculated. Two indices of calcification were assessed for each scan: the coronary calcium score22 and the estimated calcium phosphate mass.20 The coronary calcium score was calculated for each artery as follows:

where Area is the area (in square millimeters) of the ROI with four or eight contiguous pixels (as defined above) whose Hounsfield numbers exceed 130; n=1 if 130 HU<=peak CT number<=200 HU, 2 if 200 HU<=peak CT number<=300 HU, 3 if 300 HU<=peak CT number<=400 HU, and 4 if 400 HU<=peak CT number; and T is the slice thickness.

The estimated mass of calcium phosphate was calculated for each artery by use of the arterial summation (AS) as follows19 20 :

where Area is the area (in square millimeters) of the ROI with eight contiguous pixels whose Hounsfield number exceeded 0; Mean0 is the mean CT number (in HU) of that same area; Mean0' is the mean CT number (in HU) of an equal-sized, similarly defined ROI in the cardiac blood pool adjacent to the focus of calcification; T is the slice thickness (in millimeters); the summation is over the entire coronary tree; and Slope is the slope of the regression line calculated from the measured concentrations of calcium phosphate and mean CT numbers in the cylindrical rods of the calibration phantom19 20 placed under each subject during each scan.

Clinical Follow-up
All 326 subjects had been asymptomatic at enrollment. At the 1- and 2-year clinic visits, we assessed clinical coronary heart disease using a medical history questionnaire and review of medical records. The second follow-up visit consisted of a clinical assessment as well as a risk factor evaluation and an EBCT scan. At 12, 24, and 32 months after these scans, a research assistant contacted all participants by telephone. At each of these points in time, we assessed coronary heart disease using questions concerning intervening symptoms and hospital admissions.

We considered a follow-up attempt successful when surviving subjects either returned to the clinic or completed a telephone interview and all relevant medical records were obtained. For deceased subjects, we defined successful follow-up as the procurement of relevant medical records, transcribed conversation with next of kin, death certificate, and autopsy report when available. Follow-up was successfully completed in 99% of cases, and records were obtained for all hospitalizations. A committee of three board-certified cardiologists reviewed medical records and transcripts of conversations with next of kin, without knowledge of other data, to determine the occurrence of myocardial infarction or coronary heart disease death.

Statistical Analysis
Since indices of coronary calcium quantity were not normally distributed, we reported medians and ranges as well as means and SDs and performed log transformations [log10(quantity+1)] for all parametric tests. Scores and masses for each of the two protocols were sorted in ascending order, and the {chi}2 test for trends was used to determine if distributions of events in ascending quartiles had a significant trend. Logistic regression was used to determine the effect of log calcium score on event probability, independent of standard risk factors.

We constructed ROC curves for predicting coronary heart disease events (including revascularization) for both the 3- and 6-mm scan protocols. We also constructed these curves for hard events (coronary death or infarction) and revascularization separately using the 3-mm scan protocol. We compared areas under the curves using the method of Hanley and McNeil.23


*    Results
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*Results
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Patient Characteristics
Three hundred twenty-four of the 326 subjects who underwent scanning were followed up for 32.0±4.0 months after the scans. Their mean age was 66±8 years; 82% were men. Table 1Down shows the demographics and risk factors for these subjects. All patients had at least two risk factors, and the mean coronary risk (calculated from the Framingham risk equation for an event in 10 years) was 19±9%. Relevant medications were divided into four categories, as shown in Table 2Down.


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Table 1. Patient Demographics and Risk Factors


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Table 2. Percentage of Subjects Taking Relevant Medication

Five subjects had already suffered acute myocardial infarctions before their coronary calcium scans, and 7 had undergone revascularizations before their scans. Because 1 infarction had occurred in a subject with subsequent revascularization, there were 12 coronary heart disease events occurring in 11 subjects within the 24-month period before scanning.

Twenty-three coronary heart disease events occurred in 18 subjects during the 32-month period after scanning. These postscan events included 5 coronary deaths, 6 acute infarctions (1 fatal), and 12 coronary revascularizations. During the entire period embracing their scan dates, 28 subjects suffered 35 coronary events.

EBCT Scans
Table 3Down shows calcium scores and masses using both protocols. As has been previously described,20 6-mm scans result in slightly lower masses and scores.


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Table 3. EBCT Findings

Predictive Value of Coronary Calcium
Events were at least three times as frequent in subjects with coronary calcium scores or mass above the median by both scanning protocols (P<.01). Table 4Down shows the distribution by quartiles of coronary calcium score and mass for coronary heart disease events, with both hard events (myocardial infarction and coronary heart disease deaths) and soft events (coronary revascularizations) included. There was a very significant trend toward a greater frequency of events for subjects with higher coronary calcium quantity (P<.01 for both scanning protocols and both calcium mass and score).


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Table 4. Distribution of Subjects With Coronary Events Occurring Within 24 Months Before and 32 Months After Scans by Quartiles of Calcium Scores and Masses

Fig 1Down shows the ROC curves for predicting any event for the 3- and 6-mm scan protocols. There is no significant difference in the areas under the curves, indicating identical accuracy of both scan protocols in predicting events.



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Figure 1. ROC curves for predicting both hard events and revascularization for the 3- and 6-mm protocols. Note that the curves are almost identical, and there is no significant difference between the areas under the curves. A indicates area under the curve.

Hard Versus Soft Events
Before Scanning
Table 5Down shows the distribution of subjects with infarctions and revascularizations occurring within the 24-month period before scanning by quartiles of calcium scores and calcium masses. There was no significant trend in infarctions, but there was a significant upward trend in revascularizations (P<=.01) as calcium quantity increased for both calcium indices (score and mass) and both protocols. Coronary events were distributed equivalently over quartiles for the 3- and 6-mm scan protocols and for both calcium indices. Fig 2Down shows the ROC curves for predicting subjects who had infarctions and revascularizations during the 24-hour period preceding scanning. The area under the curve for predicting revascularizations is significantly greater than that for predicting infarctions (P=.004).


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Table 5. Distribution of Subjects With Myocardial Infarctions and Revascularizations Occurring Within 24 Months Before Scanning by Quartiles of Calcium Scores and Calcium Masses



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Figure 2. ROC curves for predicting subjects who had revascularization (top curve) and hard events (bottom curve) before scanning. The difference in the areas under these curves is significant. A indicates area under the curve.

After Scanning
Table 6Down shows the distribution of subjects with hard events (infarctions and coronary deaths) and revascularizations occurring during the 32-month period after scanning by quartiles of calcium scores and calcium masses. Here we see no significant trend in hard events as calcium quantities increase. However, the frequency of revascularizations increases significantly as calcium quantities increase for both the 3- and 6-mm scans (P<.01).


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Table 6. Distribution of Subjects With Hard Coronary Events (Infarction or Coronary Death) and Revascularizations Occurring Within 32 Months After Scanning by Quartiles of Calcium Scores and Calcium Masses

Table 7Down shows the distributions of hard events and revascularizations for subjects who were asymptomatic (without prior events) when scanned. The increasing frequency of revascularizations with increasing calcium quantity and the lack of a significant association with hard events are preserved for this subset of patients. Fig 3Down shows the ROC curves for predicting revascularization and hard events after scanning for subjects asymptomatic at scanning. The area under the curve for predicting revascularizations is significantly greater than that for predicting hard events (P=.05).


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Table 7. Distribution of Subjects With Hard Coronary Events (Infarction or Coronary Death) and Revascularizations Occurring During the 32 Months After Scanning by Quartiles of Calcium Scores and Calcium Masses (Asymptomatic at Time of Scan)



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Figure 3. ROC curves for predicting revascularization (top curve) and hard events (bottom curve) after scanning for subjects asymptomatic at the time of scanning. The difference in the areas under these curves is significant. A indicates area under the curve.

Before and After Scanning
Table 8Down shows the distribution of hard events and revascularizations during the 24-month period before and the 32-month period after scanning by quartiles of calcium score and mass. Here, too, only the frequency of revascularization increased significantly with quartile for both indices and both protocols. Fig 4Down shows the ROC curves for predicting revascularization and hard events using the 3-mm scan protocol. Prediction of revascularization by use of EBCT is superior to its use for the prediction of hard end points (P=.0009).


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Table 8. Distribution of Subjects With Hard Coronary Events (Infarction or Coronary Death) and Revascularizations Occurring Within 24 Months Before and 32 Months After Scanning by Quartiles of Calcium Scores and Calcium Masses



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Figure 4. ROC curves for predicting revascularization (top curve) and hard events (bottom curve) using the 3-mm scan protocol. The difference in the areas under these curves is significant. A indicates area under the curve.

Adjusting for Risk Factors
Table 9Down shows the logistic regression coefficients, odds ratios, and CIs for the prediction of hard coronary events and revascularizations in the 32 months after scanning. Notably, the log-transformed calcium score does not enter the logistic regression model as a significant independent predictor of hard coronary events. It is, however, a significant and independent predictor of revascularizations. On the other hand, only left ventricular hypertrophy by ECG is independently and significantly related to hard coronary events during the period after scanning.


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Table 9. Logistic Regression of Coronary Calcium Score (From 3-mm Scans) and Risk Factors for Hard Coronary Events and Revascularizations Occurring Within 32 Months After Scanning

Table 10Down shows the logistic regression coefficients, odds ratios, and CIs for predicting events before and after the scan. Only ECG evidence of left ventricular hypertrophy predicts hard coronary events in this period, whereas log calcium score and history of diabetes are significant predictors of revascularization.


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Table 10. Logistic Regression of Coronary Calcium Score (From 3-mm Scans) and Risk Factors for Hard Coronary Events and Revascularizations Occurring Before and After Scan


*    Discussion
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up arrowAbstract
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up arrowMethods
up arrowResults
*Discussion
down arrowReferences
 
The results presented herein indicate that both 3-mm and the simpler and more reproducible 6-mm scanning protocols18 have identical accuracy for predicting coronary events (Fig 1Up). In addition, coronary calcium predicts coronary events when revascularizations are included with hard coronary end points (coronary death and myocardial infarction). Coronary calcium was significantly related to revascularizations, whether they occurred before scanning or during subsequent follow-up. However, its predictive accuracy is greatly reduced when hard events are used as end points.

Although it has been proposed that EBCT may be useful for prospectively identifying high-risk subjects, studies conducted with asymptomatic patients are scarce and show conflicting results.1 24 25 26 27 Our cohort included only 11 patients who had already suffered events and was thus composed predominantly (97%) of asymptomatic subjects at high risk of coronary heart disease. The present investigation involves the highest number of hard coronary end points (infarction and coronary death) of all reports to date. It also includes significant numbers of revascularizations done both before and after scanning. The results clearly show that subjects with little or no coronary calcium detected by EBCT can suffer coronary heart disease death and myocardial infarction. The results also demonstrate that revascularizations are more frequently performed for patients with than for those without coronary calcification. This raises the question of why subjects without coronary calcification have a significant likelihood of suffering infarctions or death but a lower likelihood of undergoing revascularization.

Most pathophysiological studies have shown that the mechanism of sudden death and myocardial infarction is usually plaque rupture,11 28 with the underlying substrate of coronary atherosclerosis. However, it is conceivable that both infarction and death could have had other mechanisms in our subjects. Sudden death judged to have been caused by coronary disease by our adjudication committee might have been due to primary arrhythmias or other noncoronary causes. Because autopsies were not performed, this possibility cannot be excluded. However, the bulk of the literature based on pathological data supports coronary atherosclerosis as the cause of sudden death in the overwhelming majority of cases.29 30 31 32 33 34

It is also possible that severe atherosclerosis without calcification existed in our asymptomatic subjects who suffered hard coronary events. A small percentage (5%) of subjects with proven severe atherosclerosis by angiography have been found not to have detectable coronary calcification by EBCT.35 Additionally, we have noted two cases of proven severe atherosclerosis in patients who suffered hard coronary events but did not have radiographically detectable coronary calcification.10 35

This raises the interesting possibility that under certain circumstances, noncalcific plaques may be more likely to rupture than those containing calcium. Analysis of the biomechanical properties of atherosclerotic plaques suggests that calcified lesions are more resistant to rupture than noncalcified plaques,14 and results from the FATS study36 indicate that the primary benefit of lipid-lowering therapy is not regression of atherosclerosis but stabilization of existing lesions by lowering their lipid content. In a prospective study of asymptomatic patients with carotid artery atherosclerosis, Johnson et al34 showed that patients with ultrasonically detectable carotid calcium are much less likely to suffer symptomatic cerebral events than those with no detectable carotid calcium despite the severity of stenosis. More recent studies have also shown an association between carotid artery plaque composition and symptomatic cerebral ischemia.37 38 Kragel et al,39 in a postmortem study of 27 hearts, found that ruptured plaques tended to contain more lipid and less fibrous tissue and calcium than those that had not ruptured. Our finding of an association between coronary calcium and revascularization may also be explained by the stability of calcified lesions that lead to more stable and less catastrophic symptoms and thus allow revascularization to be performed before the occurrence of more serious events. It is also possible that a report of an abnormal computed tomographic result might have increased the likelihood of referral for revascularization.40 However, research staff explained to the participants that the clinical significance of coronary calcium was as yet unknown, and no attempt was made to directly communicate EBCT results to their personal physicians. Also, examination of Tables 5Up, 6Up, and 7Up similarly shows that the likelihood of revascularizations increases with higher calcium quantity either before or after EBCT scanning. This fact makes referral bias an unlikely cause for the observed increase in the incidence of revascularization, with greater quantities of calcium detected by use of EBCT.

Both the standard 3-mm-thick and the more reproducible 6-mm-thick slice protocols (which we have developed and researched in our laboratory) gave similar distributions of coronary events in ascending quartiles of scores and coronary masses. Because the thick-slice studies can be analyzed more quickly and more easily and have a higher interscan reproducibility,18 we recommend that this protocol be used in all research regarding coronary screening. This would greatly reduce cost and simplify coronary screening research.

The cohort of subjects that we studied were of very high risk for suffering coronary events. It is possible, however, that coronary calcium would be a predictor of infarction and death in low-risk individuals. The results presented here indicate that more research is needed before this clinical screening is approved by the medical community.


*    Selected Abbreviations and Acronyms
 
EBCT = electron beam computed tomography
HU = Hounsfield unit
ROC = receiver operating characteristic
ROI = region of interest


*    Acknowledgments
 
This study was supported by an NHLBI grant, No. 5-ROI-HL-43277-06, and a grant from Saint John's Heart Institute. Particular gratitude must be extended to Drs Bruce Brundage, Kenneth Narahara, Demetrios Georgiou, and William French for their assistance as part of the ECG reading and adjudication committees. Dr Brundage provided institutional support as well. The nursing support of Oleh Brezden and Gail Puentes is deeply appreciated. Eddie F. Rodrigues and Ramon M. Valencia provided technical and editorial assistance.

Received January 2, 1997; revision received March 14, 1997; accepted March 18, 1997.


*    References
up arrowTop
up arrowAbstract
up arrowIntroduction
up arrowMethods
up arrowResults
up arrowDiscussion
*References
 

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