(Circulation. 1999;99:1325-1330.)
© 1999 American Heart Association, Inc.
Clinical Investigation and Reports |
From the Departments of Clinical Physiology (A.R., A.J.-D., L.J.), Haematology (P.L.), and Cardiovascular Medicine (H.J.), Karolinska Hospital, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden.
Correspondence to Dr Ary Ribeiro, Department of Clinical Physiology, Thoracic Clinics, Karolinska Hospital, 171 76 Stockholm, Sweden. E-mail ari{at}thfys.ks.se
| Abstract |
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Methods and ResultsEchocardiography
Doppler was performed in 78 patients with acute PE at the time of
diagnosis and repeatedly during the next year. A 5-year survival
analysis was made. The PAsP decreased exponentially until the
beginning of a stable phase, which was
38 days. The recovery of RV
function occurred during the same time period. Risk factors for
persistent PH/RV dysfunction and the 5-year mortality rate were
analyzed using multiple logistic regression models. A PAsP of
>50 mm Hg at the time of diagnosis of acute PE was associated
with persistent PH after 1 year. The 5-year mortality rate was
associated with underlying disease. Only patients with persistent PH in
the stable phase required pulmonary
thromboendarterectomy within 5 years.
ConclusionsAn echocardiography Doppler investigation performed 6 weeks after diagnosis of acute PE can identify patients with persistent PH/RV dysfunction and may be of value in planning the follow-up and care of these patients.
Key Words: pulmonary heart disease echocardiography follow-up studies statistics
| Introduction |
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The long-term prognosis of patients with CTPH and without previous cardiopulmonary disease is related to the level of PA pressure and the presence of RV failure.10 However, the course within the year after the diagnosis of acute PE has not been well characterized. The identification of persistent PH/RV dysfunction in patients treated for acute PE may be erroneous or delayed if the course of PAsP/RV function is not well described.
This study was designed to (1) describe the course of PAsP and RV function within the year after the diagnosis of acute PE, (2) test the hypothesis that there are clinical and echocardiographic variables at the time of diagnosis of acute PE associated with an increased risk for the presence of PH or RV dysfunction 1 year later, and (3) determine which variables associated with PE were relevant for the 5-year survival of patients alive 1 month after the diagnosis of PE.
| Methods |
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18 years; (3) diagnosis of
PE based on ventilation/perfusion scan, pulmonary
angiography, or both and a same-day investigation with
echocardiography Doppler (echo-Doppler);
and (4) feasibility for repeated echo-Doppler investigations at our
institution during the year after inclusion. The day on which the
diagnosis of PE was made was defined as day 1. Repeated
echo-Doppler investigations were planned for days 4, 8, 30, 90,
180, and 365. During the study period, 128 patients fulfilled the diagnostic criteria. Fifty patients were not included in the follow-up because follow-up considered unethical or not feasible (25 patients), resources for echo-Doppler investigation were not available on the day of diagnosis (13), patients were not reported to the investigators (8), patients were not willing to participate in repeated examinations (2), or the diagnosis of PE not made at the preliminary evaluation of the lung scintigraphy (2). Thus, 78 patients were initially included.
The study was approved by the Ethics Committee of the Karolinska Hospital.
Baseline Variables
The baseline variables analyzed were age, gender,
duration of symptoms, and underlying disease, as previously
defined.5 Malignancy was defined as known disease at the
time of inclusion.
Recurrent PE
For the period of 1 month to 1 year after inclusion, patients
with symptoms suggesting PE and with new perfusion defects on the lung
scan were interpreted as having recurrent PE.
Echo-Doppler
A transthoracic echo-Doppler was performed
immediately after the diagnosis of PE and repeatedly during the year of
follow-up. Assessment of RV wall motion and calculation of the PAsP, as
well as the reproducibility for these measurements, have been described
previously.5
Pulmonary Artery Systolic Pressure
The tricuspid regurgitation (TR) Doppler signal at
day 1 was not detectable in 8 patients, and they were excluded.
For the remaining 70 patients, the values of PAsP obtained from
repeated examinations were plotted against time (Figure 1
). A course pattern was found that
apparently had 2 phases: an initial dynamic phase and a late stable
phase. The stable phase appeared start 1 month after diagnosis of acute
PE. We assumed that the time course of the variable PAsP could be
characterized by an initial exponential phase
[b2xexp(b3xtime)]
added to a linear late phase
(b0+b1xtime)
and described by the equation
y=b0+b1xt+b2xexp(b3xt).
(Figure 2A
). To obtain a reasonable basis
for a least-squares adaptation to the equation, we excluded from
further analyses 26 patients with <5 measurements during the
follow-up period, leaving 44 patients for subsequent analyses.
Furthermore, we considered the 4-parameter model relevant
only if the day-1 value exceeded an average value, as estimated through
extrapolation from the linear (stable) phase, by >1.96 times the
day-to-day intrapatient variation of measurements
(SDmeas) (Figure 2B
). To estimate
SDmeas values, we applied for each separate
patient a least-squares fit of observations on day 31 through day 365
to the equation
y=a0+a1xt.
The sum of squares obtained were added (SStot),
and a total root-mean-square value (RMStot) was
calculated according to
RMStot=
[1/(N-2n)]xSStot,
where N is the total number of observations, and n is the number of
patients. SDmeas (=RMStot)
was found to be 3.07. Seven patients were excluded, leaving 37 patients
for subsequent analyses. For each of these patients, we
performed a least-squares adaptation to the 4-parameter
equation by applying a nonlinear regression model.
|
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The time at which the PAsP value for each separate patient had declined
to the stable phase level (ts) was
considered to be when the PAsP value estimated the equation
y=b0+b1xt+b2xexp(b3xt)
was equal to
y=b0+b1xt+1.96x3.07
(3.07=SDmeas as determined above). Hence,
b2xexp(b3xts)=6.0
and
ts=ln(6.0/b2)/b3
(Figure 2C
).
RV Function
Hypokinesis of RV was classified as RV-A (hypokinesis 0 and 1+)
or RV-B (2+ or 3+), as described previously.5 Each
observation was assigned to 1 of the "nominal" predetermined
occasions. To describe the time course of RV function, 3 criteria were
required: a echocardiographic baseline observation (day
1),
1 additional observation during the period assumed to be dynamic,
and a completed 1-year follow-up; 3, 5 and 14 patients, respectively,
were thereby excluded, leaving 56 patients for the 1-year serial
analyses of RV function.
Echo-Doppler Status at 1-Year Follow-Up
Patients were classified into 2 groups: those in group 1 had an
PAsP of
30 mm Hg or no detectable TR Doppler signal and
RV-A, and those in group 2 had an PAsP of >30 mm Hg or RV-B.
Five-Year Survival Analysis
A 5-year survival analysis was made in September 1997.
Patients who were analyzed were those who survived longer than
1 month after the day on which the diagnosis of PE was made. Data were
collected from the Swedish Death Register; if PE was assigned as the
immediate or underlying cause of death in the death certificate,
patients were classified as having died from PE.
Statistical Analysis
Data with normal distribution are presented as mean±SD
or as median and range. All probability values are 2-tailed, and values
of <0.05 were considered statistically significant. The Student's
t, Wilcoxon rank sum,
2,
and Fisher's exact test were used when applicable.
To identify at the time of diagnosis predictors of adverse outcome
defined as persistent PH or RV systolic dysfunction at 1-year
follow-up, a multiple logistic regression analysis was
performed. Patients who interrupted the follow-up or died during the
period were classified as belonging to group 2, according to the
principle of "pragmatic approach."11 The variables
entered in the model were those with probability values of
0.2 in the
univariate analyses between groups 1 and 2 as shown
in Table 1
. The cutoff level for
grouping the continuous variables of age and PAsP in Table 1
was based on receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs) by
identification of the best level for discrimination between groups 1
and 2 at 1 year.
|
To identify variables associated with a 5-year mortality rate for
patients alive 1 month after the diagnosis of PE, a multiple logistic
regression analysis was performed as described but using the
data given for the 73 patients at 1-month follow-up in relation to
5-year survival rates (see Table 4
).
|
The results of the regression models are presented as odds ratio (OR) with a 95% CI values.
All statistical analyses were made with the use of JMP, version 3.1 (SAS Institute Inc) with the exception of the nonlinear estimation of PAsP, for which (quasi-newtonian method) STATISTICA for Windows 1995 (StatSoft Inc) was used.
| Results |
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Course of PAsP/RV Function Within 1 Year
The curves describing the course for the mean (37 patients),
in relation to groups 1 and 2, generated with the 4
parameters b0,
b1, b2, and
b3 of the function
PAsP=b0+b1xtime+b2exp(b3xtime)
are presented in Figure 3
.
|
As expected (by definition), the parameter b0 was higher in group 2. No significant differences were found between the 2 groups for the degree (b2) or rate (b3) of reduction in PAsP. The time (in days) at which the PAsP had reached the stable phase level (ts) was essentially the same for both groups (group 1, 7.3 [0.3 to 37.3]; group 2: 6.7 [0.1 to 20.0]).
The parameter b1, which describes the slope of the apparently stable phase, was not significantly different from zero (0.00231±0.0876).
The time to achieve the stable phase was <21 days for 90% of patients
and
38 days for all patients (Figure 4
).
|
The treatment received in the acute phase produced no significant difference in the time to achieve the stable phase (thrombolysis, 4.9 days [0.1 to 21 days]; heparin, 4.6 [0.4 to 37 days]; P=0.9) or in the level of PAsP estimated for the stable phase (29 [21 to 60] versus 27 [17 to 37], P=0.19).
The nonlinear estimation could not be applied in 33 patients: 1 had a
course that did not fit the model, 6 lacked significant variability,
and 26 patients had <5 measurements during the follow-up period (
5
follow-up visits but no detectable TR Doppler signal
5 times, <5
follow-up visits, death, or refusal to fulfill the follow-up program).
The pattern of changes in PAsP for this subgroup of 33 patients was
essentially the same pattern as that seen for the entire group.
Of the 56 patients who fulfilled the criteria for analysis of
repeated measurements for degree of RV hypokinesis, 36 (64%) had
significant RV dysfunction at the time of diagnosis of PE (day 1). At
the 1-year follow-up, only 3 of these patients had persistent RV
dysfunction, whereas the remaining 33 patients had normal RV
systolic function. In the great majority of patients, RV
systolic function had normalized by day 8 (7 days [5 to 13
days]), as shown in Table 2
. One patient
recovered RV function between days 8 and 30.
|
Status at 1-Year Follow-Up
Table 1
shows selected characteristics for the 78 patients
at inclusion according to classification into group 1 or 2 at the end
of the 1-year follow-up period. Patients with persistent PH/RV
dysfunction (group 2) were significantly older and presented
with a higher level of PAsP at day 1.
As shown in Table 3
, in a multiple
logistic regression model, age of >70 years and PAsP of >50
mm Hg at the time of the diagnosis of PE were independent
variables significantly associated with an increased risk of
persistent PH/RV dysfunction.
|
Five-Year Survival Analysis
Of the 73 patients alive 1 month after the diagnosis of acute PE,
12 (16.4%) died during the subsequent 5 years. The causes of death
were cancer (5), heart failure (4), pneumonia (1), cardiac
arrhythmia (1), and cerebrovascular insult (1). None of the
deaths were attributed to PE.
Table 4
shows selected characteristics
for the 73 patients at 1-month follow-up in relation to 5-year survival
rates. In a multiple logistic regression model, variables
significantly associated with the 5-year mortality rate were diagnosis
of cancer (OR, 22.6; 95% CI, 3.5 to 215.6), age (OR, 20.9; 95% CI,
1.3 to 367.0), and PAsP >35 mm Hg (OR, 9.2; 95% CI, 1.5 to
77.5)
Three patients in group 2 underwent pulmonary thromboendarterectomy at 12, 24, and 44 months after inclusion in the study. All the 3 patients were alive at the end of the 5-year observation period.
| Discussion |
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Dalen et al6 reported the results of repeated
catheterization after acute PE in 15 patients without
previous cardiac disease. It was observed that right heart pressures
had returned to near-normal values in the majority of patients within
10 to 21 days. In our study, we analyzed the course in 37
patients, all with
5 PAsP measurements during 1-year follow-up
providing a more detailed description of the course over a longer
period. Despite differences in materials and methods between our study
and that of Dalen et al, the results are concordant concerning patients
who returned to normal PA pressures. In addition, our study
demonstrates that patients who do not have a normal PA pressure achieve
a stabilization within 1 month.
The relation between clinical and echocardiographic
variables at the time of diagnosis and the risk of persistent PH/RV
dysfunction has not been analyzed before. In the present
study, this risk was calculated to be
3 times higher for patients
with PAsP of >50 mm Hg at the time of diagnosis. Age of >70
years was also associated with an increased risk of persistent PH/RV
dysfunction. However, because the confidence intervals in the
analyses are wide, caution should be used in interpreting the
absolute value for increased risk.
The number of patients classified as having persistent PH/RV dysfunction in our study was high compared with previous studies.7 8 There several explanations for this. Patients (14 of 78, 17.9%) not evaluated at 1-year follow-up due to withdrawals or death were classified according to the principle of "pragmatic approach"11 as having persistent PH/RV dysfunction. Furthermore, the cutoff level for PH at 1-year follow-up was low: PAsP >30 mm Hg. However, even with a higher cutoff level (>40 mm Hg) for PAsP after 1 year, the number of patients with persistent PH is still considerable (4 of 78, 5.1%). A PAsP of >70 mm Hg at the day of diagnosis of PE has been used for differentiating between patients with "acute" and "subacute" or "chronic" PE.12 13 In our study, there were 7 patients (7 of 78, 8.9%) with PAsP of >70 mm Hg on the day for diagnosis, which represents a considerable number of cases. These findings indicate that there are more patients with significant persistent PH after an apparently acute PE than previously reported, as suggested by Moser et al.9 These unrecognized cases of CTPH could be identified using a systematic echo-Doppler investigation 1 to 2 months after a diagnosis of acute PE.
It is currently accepted that PE patients with CTPH and RV dysfunction
have a worse 5-year prognosis than do those without CTPH and RV
dysfunction.10 For the group evaluated at 1-year follow-up
(64 patients), we found during the subsequent 4 years of observation
that 3 of the 4 patients with PAsP of >40 mm Hg underwent
pulmonary thromboendarterectomy due to
progressive RV failure. None of the patients in the group with PAsP of
40 mm Hg underwent surgery (P<0.0001). This
observation supports the hypothesis that patients with PE who have
persistent PH/RV dysfunction after the dynamic phase of the course may
constitute a group at considerable risk for further
hemodynamic deterioration.
In patients alive after 1 month, a multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that the 5-year mortality rate was significantly and independently associated with age, the diagnosis of malignancy, and PAsP of >35 mm Hg. The wide confidence intervals indicate that interpretation of the absolute value of the odds ratio is uncertain. The cause of death was not assigned to PE in any of the patients dying during the period of 1 month to 5 years after the indexed event. This is in accordance with previous reports.7 12
A methodological difficulty in the present study was the 1-year
classification of echo-Doppler status for patients lost in
follow-up. We applied the principle of "pragmatic
approach"11 (ie, patients with missing echo-Doppler
data were classified as group 2). This may have influenced the results
shown in Table 3
. However, 2 alternative models (1 that included
patients missing 1-year echo-Doppler data in group 1 and the other
included only the 64 who were actually evaluated at the 1-year
follow-up) provided the same results as are given in Table 3
. In
the alternative model that included the 64 patients, age was not
significantly associated with persistent PH/RV dysfunction at 1 year.
The alternative analyses14 make us confident that
the level of PAsP of >50 mm Hg at the day of the diagnosis of PE
is a risk factor for persistent PH/RV dysfunction 1 year later.
A weakness of the study was the relative incompleteness of the data set: a reduction from 128 to 78 patients (included in the 1-year echo-Doppler follow-up), from 70 to 37 patients (for serial analyses of PAsP), and from 78 to 56 (for serial analyses of RV function). However, the incompleteness was not due to selection bias but rather to study design and to the methodological approach used to describe dynamic changes of the selected variables.
The overall in-hospital mortality rate (8.6%) in the sample of 128 individuals considered for inclusion in follow-up is similar to that reported by Carson et al (9.5%)15 and to the mortality rate (8.1%) of hemodynamically stable patients reported by Kasper et al.16 Based on these observations, we conclude that the sample evaluated for inclusion in follow-up was representative of the population of PE patients who were "hemodynamically stable" at diagnosis.
The sample population for the 1-year echo-Doppler follow-up study included fewer cases of cancer and the patients received thrombolytic therapy more often. The in-hospital mortality rate was 12% in the group not included in follow-up and 6.4% in the group included in the follow-up (P=0.34). The 5-year mortality rates were 42% and 21.8%, respectively (P=0.02). Based on these analyses, we conclude that the sample included in the 1-year follow-up (n=78) differed from the sample not included (n=50). We cannot discount that results differing from those reported in the present study can be found in a sample including a broader spectrum of patients with PE.
The proportion of patients (41%, 32 of 78) who received thrombolytic therapy was higher than expected. However, if we analyze the 128 patients who were considered for inclusion, this percentage falls to 25%. This figure is in accordance with that reported (23.5%) in a study of patients with PE who were hemodynamically stable at inclusion.4
A difficult problem in clinical research is how to approach the problem of repeated measurements when the prerequisite for analysis of variance is not filled.17 In the present study, we approached the problem by studying the continuous variables as a function of time [y=f(t)]. Based on raw plot for all patients, we set up a model of an initial exponential phase approaching a subsequent linear phase. The data for the individual patient were then adapted to the model by a least-squares fit. With this methodology, variables could be analyzed independently of the precise time of observation, size of the group of patients, and magnitude of variance observed on the corresponding occasion. This approach is less sensitive for missing data than, for instance, ANOVA. Some patients had to be excluded from the final analysis because they did not fulfill the criteria; for example, 1 patient presented a course with an initially increasing PAsP. This patient had progressive RV failure within the follow-up period and underwent successful pulmonary thromboendarterectomy. The proposed model is applicable for the majority of, but not for all. patients with a diagnosis of acute PE.
Incompleteness of the data set in the serial analyses of RV
function (from 78 to 56) was also a problem. However, if we
analyze all patients with >1 observation (n=72) or those with
1 observation during the stable phase (n=67), the results are
essentially the same as those given in Table 2
.
We conclude that the pattern for the change with time of PAsP/RV function during the year after an acute episode of PE has an initial dynamic phase of 6 weeks followed by a stable phase. In patients with a PAsP of >50 mm Hg at the time of diagnosis of the acute episode, the risk for persistent PH/RV dysfunction increases 3-fold. Five-year follow-up showed that these patients may have further hemodynamic deterioration. Patients at risk may be identified through a systematic echo-Doppler investigation 6 weeks after the day of the diagnosis of acute PE. These findings may have implications in planning the follow-up and care of PE patients.
| Acknowledgments |
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Received August 17, 1998; revision received November 11, 1998; accepted November 23, 1998.
| References |
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